Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Romance

Of 80 developers who shipped a Romance Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 106 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.7k, ×14 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $520k, ×1100 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 106 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 106 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 80
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $19k → $8.6k → $22k → $8.4k → $6.6k → $1.3k (still earning) → $6.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 80
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Median $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,053)
Top 5% $523k (exactly $522,726)
Developers, 2 yr 80
Released games 252
Announced 106
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, JRPG
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Lore-Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 11,529 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $6.7k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $520k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 8 in 10 of the 52 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 106 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition older $49.99 34,157 83% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,225,253) Owlcat Games
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader older $49.99 33,701 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,541,390) Owlcat Games
FINAL FANTASY X/X-2 HD Remaster older $29.99 19,857 87% 596k $18M (exactly $17,865,343) Square Enix
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
FINAL FANTASY IX older $20.99 12,447 95% 373k $7.8M (exactly $7,837,876) Square Enix
Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew older $39.99 5,190 91% 156k $6.2M (exactly $6,226,443) Mimimi Games
The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel older $39.99 5,131 94% 154k $6.2M (exactly $6,155,661) Nihon Falcom
Romancing SaGa 2: Revenge of the Seven $49.99 3,921 93% 118k $5.9M (exactly $5,880,324) Square Enix, xeen Inc.
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky older $19.99 8,801 94% 264k $5.3M (exactly $5,277,960) Nihon Falcom
LUNAR Remastered Collection $49.99 576 91% 17k $864k (exactly $863,827) ASHIBI Co., Ltd., GAME ARTS Co., Ltd.
Ova Magica $29.99 581 91% 17k $523k (exactly $522,726) ClaudiaTheDev, Skinny Frog
Ledgerbound $29.99 562 92% 17k $506k (exactly $505,631) OmniMegaSuperCorp
Trails in the Sky 2nd Chapter $59.99 171 97% 5.1k $308k (exactly $307,749) Nihon Falcom
Ascend From Nine Mountains · EA $19.99 324 92% 9.7k $194k (exactly $194,303) Nine Ascension Studios
The Silent Kingdom · EA $17.99 290 99% 8.7k $157k (exactly $156,513) Lucky Cat
Beloved Rapture $19.99 237 82% 7.1k $142k (exactly $142,129) Rapturous Studio
Fuckstone $11.99 217 88% 6.5k $78k (exactly $78,055) Anime Mania

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.