Do I ship it?

GamesTradingTrading + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Roguelite?

Trading + Roguelite

Only 16 developers shipped a Trading Roguelite in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Apocalypse: The Last RV, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $23k, ×50 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 51 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 51 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $5.4k → $3.3k → $600 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 5% $24k (exactly $23,802)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 35
Announced 51
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 335% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Trading, Roguelite
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 231 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $750, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $23k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 51 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Star Traders: Frontiers older $14.99 3,672 83% 110k $1.7M (exactly $1,651,298) Trese Brothers
Space Warlord Organ Trading Simulator older $19.99 827 92% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Strange Scaffold
Mad Smartphone Tycoon older $11.99 577 71% 17k $208k (exactly $207,547) Miradil
Transcendence older $14.99 214 88% 6.4k $96k (exactly $96,236) Kronosaur Productions
Trapper: Drug Dealing RPG · EA older $19.99 102 88% 3.1k $61k (exactly $61,169) Lathon Gaming
Apocalypse: The Last RV · EA $4.99 159 68% 4.8k $24k (exactly $23,802) 光年切片工作室
Bootleg Steamer older $14.99 23 73% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Team Junkfish
Shop-Like - The Rogue-Like Item Shop Experience older $7.99 37 75% 1.1k $8.9k (exactly $8,869) Rand.Exe Studios
Maritime Calling older $7.99 31 51% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Tiamat Games
King's Subsidy $11.99 15 80% 450 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Marcin Henzel
Commander Bug Wars $9.99 18 83% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) GoldenGod Games
白影酒馆 Tavern Revisited $9.99 11 63% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Stray Dog Game Studio
Soulreign $7.99 12 83% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Berraco
The Art Collector $12.99 2 100% 60 $779 (exactly $779) Shyborg Games
Seed 2313 $4.99 5 80% 150 $748 (exactly $748) DaShanGames
Void Roots $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Peon's Lair
Second Chance at a Billion $10.00 2 50% 60 $600 (exactly $600) ElderYew
GuildMestar $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) OffPath LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.