Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Combat › Turn-Based Combat + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Deckbuilder Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Of 195 developers who shipped a Roguelike Deckbuilder Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 308 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.6k, ×18 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $930k, ×1977 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 308 games are announced against 111 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 308 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Roguelike Deckbuilder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 195
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $54k → $21k → $25k → $11k → $13k → $9.9k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Roguelike Deckbuilder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 195
Bottom 30% $2.8k (exactly $2,844)
Median $8.6k (exactly $8,626)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $55,145)
Top 5% $939k (exactly $939,130)
Developers, 2 yr 195
Released games 319
Announced 308
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat, Roguelike Deckbuilder; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Roguelike
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 247,517 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.9k, median $8.6k, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $930k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.9k. 7 in 10 of the 90 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 308 games are announced against 111 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Slay the Spire 2 2026 · EA · $138M Monster Train 2020 · $15M 9 Kings 2025 · EA · $13M Chrono Ark 2024 · $9.5M Griftlands 2021 · $8.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
Chrono Ark older $24.99 12,623 90% 379k $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) Al Fine
Griftlands older $19.99 13,440 93% 403k $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) Klei Entertainment
Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors $9.99 18,587 96% 558k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,524) poncle, Nosebleed Interactive
Super Fantasy Kingdom · EA $19.99 5,630 86% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,376,311) Super Fantasy Games
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Shogun Showdown older $14.99 6,197 95% 186k $2.8M (exactly $2,786,791) Roboatino
He is Coming · EA $19.99 3,834 84% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,299,250) Chronocle
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
Die in the Dungeon $14.99 3,239 92% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,456,578) ATICO
Decktamer $15.99 2,069 86% 62k $992k (exactly $992,499) Horizon Edge
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.