Do I ship it?

GamesTradingTrading + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Roguelike?

Trading + Roguelike

Of 23 developers who shipped a Trading Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×437 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 39 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 39 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $5.4k → $59 (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 5% $207k (exactly $207,392)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 42
Announced 39
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Trading, Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Crafting, Economy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 4,021 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
《蜀山:初章》买断版 older $24.99 5,772 74% 173k $4.3M (exactly $4,327,268) 重楼工作室
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Space Warlord Organ Trading Simulator older $19.99 827 92% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Strange Scaffold
Military Incremental Complex $9.99 692 82% 21k $207k (exactly $207,392) Space Kraken Studios
Transcendence older $14.99 214 88% 6.4k $96k (exactly $96,236) Kronosaur Productions
Trapper: Drug Dealing RPG · EA older $19.99 102 88% 3.1k $61k (exactly $61,169) Lathon Gaming
BIG LOOT · EA $15.99 83 68% 2.5k $40k (exactly $39,815) Reverie Clouds
The Chronicles of Quiver Dick older $2.99 173 93% 5.2k $16k (exactly $15,518) Crankage Games
Warp to Sector One · EA $11.99 41 92% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) hextor.Games
Bootleg Steamer older $14.99 23 73% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Team Junkfish
King's Subsidy $11.99 15 80% 450 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Marcin Henzel
Commander Bug Wars $9.99 18 83% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) GoldenGod Games
TradingLife · EA $11.99 10 100% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) Fun(ctor) Studio
白影酒馆 Tavern Revisited $9.99 11 63% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Stray Dog Game Studio
Arms Dealer $5.99 9 100% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) Koro Pixel Studio
Seed 2313 $4.99 5 80% 150 $748 (exactly $748) DaShanGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.