Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzle PlatformerPuzzle Platformer + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Puzzle Platformer?

Puzzle Platformer + Lovecraftian

Only 11 developers shipped a Lovecraftian Puzzle Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Auridia, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.3k, ×20 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $50k, ×107 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 22 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 19.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 22 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle Platformer + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $629 → $5.4k → $748 → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle Platformer + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,435)
Median $9.3k (exactly $9,281)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,519)
Top 5% $51k (exactly $50,649)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 36
Announced 22
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Puzzle Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 542 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $9.3k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $50k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceFair41 devs · median $1.5k · 38 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair20 devs · median $1.1k · 26 announced
  3. + Life SimFair20 devs · median $657 · 21 announced
  4. + SimulationFair216 devs · median $479 · 181 announced
  5. + Grid-Based MovementFair62 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  6. + SokobanFair51 devs · median $358 · 49 announced
  7. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds26 devs · median $9.0k · 53 announced
  8. + MetroidvaniaPoor odds91 devs · median $5.3k · 264 announced
  9. + SwordplayPoor odds8 devs · median $4.2k · 19 announced
  10. + Split ScreenPoor odds24 devs · median $3.6k · 35 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds18 devs · median $3.0k · 80 announced
  12. + Local Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $2.7k · 105 announced

All 169 pairs on the Puzzle Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
eversion older $4.99 1,106 91% 33k $166k (exactly $165,568) Zaratustra Productions
Morkredd older $19.99 158 71% 4.7k $95k (exactly $94,753) Hyper Games
Batbarian: Testament of the Primordials older $14.99 210 80% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Unspeakable Pixels
Hamilton's Great Adventure older $9.99 230 69% 6.9k $69k (exactly $68,931) Fatshark
Auridia $9.99 169 97% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,649) Reed Molbak, Norseboar Games
TAMASHII older $4.99 317 95% 9.5k $47k (exactly $47,455) Vikintor
Chasing the Unseen older $19.99 38 60% 1.1k $23k (exactly $22,789) Strange Shift Studio
VonGarland Castle : Beyond Blood $14.99 42 57% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Ash Jackson
Guayota older $14.99 40 92% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) Team Delusion
Paradox Vector older $9.99 59 83% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,682) Schmidt Workshops
SECTOR ZERO $3.99 138 93% 4.1k $17k (exactly $16,519) Ondrej Angelovic
CTHULOOT $14.99 32 81% 960 $14k (exactly $14,390) Pixelnest Studio, Headbang Club
Rumbral $12.99 30 76% 900 $12k (exactly $11,691) OSEA Innovations
Forgotten Hill: The Wardrobe $4.99 62 72% 1.9k $9.3k (exactly $9,281) FM Studio
Bio Fail $2.99 46 100% 1.4k $4.1k (exactly $4,126) Langonier
Futanari's Secret: The Forest $2.99 16 93% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) Red Sasori
Wet And Wild $4.99 5 80% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Red Sasori
Rusty Flesh $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Wasteland Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.