Do I ship it?

GamesTime ManipulationTime Manipulation + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation Puzzle game?

Time Manipulation + Puzzle

Of 104 developers who shipped a Time Manipulation Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 188 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $98k, ×207 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 188 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 188 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Time Manipulation + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 104
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $718 → $1.7k → $1.1k → $839 → $899 → $6.0k → $390 (still earning) → $234 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Time Manipulation + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 104
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $6.5k (exactly $6,473)
Top 5% $98k (exactly $98,351)
Developers, 2 yr 104
Released games 375
Announced 188
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Time Manipulation, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 2,603 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $720, 1 in 4 over $6.4k, 1 in 20 over $98k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 188 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Time Manipulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DemonsFair14 devs · median $2.7k · 9 announced
  2. + CapitalismFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + ModernFair12 devs · median $987 · 9 announced
  4. + PsychologicalFair18 devs · median $897 · 17 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair10 devs · median $657 · 15 announced
  6. + RacingFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair22 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  8. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 24 announced
  9. + RobotsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 16 announced
  10. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced
  11. + DetectivePoor odds16 devs · median $6.5k · 32 announced
  12. + NoirPoor odds9 devs · median $6.5k · 15 announced

All 103 pairs on the Time Manipulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SUPERHOT older $24.99 27,765 91% 833k $21M (exactly $20,815,420) SUPERHOT Team
SUPERHOT: MIND CONTROL DELETE older $24.99 9,247 85% 277k $6.9M (exactly $6,932,476) SUPERHOT Team
SUPERHOT VR older $24.99 7,978 82% 239k $6.0M (exactly $5,981,107) SUPERHOT Team
Twelve Minutes older $24.99 7,408 73% 222k $5.6M (exactly $5,553,778) Luis Antonio
Braid older $14.99 6,941 93% 208k $3.1M (exactly $3,121,368) Number None
5D Chess With Multiverse Time Travel older $11.99 8,097 96% 243k $2.9M (exactly $2,912,491) Conor Petersen, Thunkspace, LLC
The Entropy Centre older $19.99 3,359 89% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,014,392) Stubby Games
The Silent Age older $9.99 5,966 93% 179k $1.8M (exactly $1,788,010) House On Fire
The Sexy Brutale older $19.99 2,895 91% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,736,131) Cavalier Game Studios, Tequila Works
Arise: A Simple Story older $19.99 2,723 91% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,632,983) Piccolo Studio
The Posthumous Investigation $19.99 554 94% 17k $332k (exactly $332,234) Mother Gaia Studio
Kill The Shadow $16.99 447 86% 13k $228k (exactly $227,836) Shadowlight
Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate $49.99 149 62% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) Mighty Eyes
MotionRec $9.99 430 99% 13k $129k (exactly $128,871) HANDSUM
NODE $24.99 146 91% 4.4k $109k (exactly $109,456) Lapsus Games
Kulebra and the Souls of Limbo: Closure Edition $19.99 164 99% 4.9k $98k (exactly $98,351) Galla
Super Puzzled Cat $16.99 183 98% 5.5k $93k (exactly $93,275) Penguin Mug Games
Retrace the Light $17.99 170 85% 5.1k $92k (exactly $91,749) Xiaming Game
Check Inn $14.99 197 84% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) KishMish Games
UnLoop · EA $17.99 163 98% 4.9k $88k (exactly $87,971) Superposition NULL

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.