Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Runner?

Runner + Puzzle

Of 97 developers who shipped a Puzzle Runner in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 88 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 49 developers shipped in the last year and 88 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 88 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 97
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $356 → $1.2k → $150 → $269 → $299 → $300 → $449 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Runner + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 97
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $180 (exactly $180)
Top 25% $719 (exactly $719)
Top 5% $9.9k (exactly $9,893)
Developers, 2 yr 97
Released games 326
Announced 88
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Runner, Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Arcade
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,493 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $710, 1 in 20 over $9.8k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 88 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SEUM: Speedrunners from Hell older $14.99 2,050 95% 62k $922k (exactly $921,885) Pine Studio
Last Room older $29.99 953 73% 29k $857k (exactly $857,414) Quantum Forge Studios
I wanna be the Creator older $5.99 2,860 94% 86k $514k (exactly $513,942) Aikesi
DeadCore older $9.99 1,584 85% 48k $475k (exactly $474,725) 5 Bits Games
YEAH! YOU WANT "THOSE GAMES," RIGHT? SO HERE YOU GO! NOW, LET'S SEE YOU CLEAR THEM! older $9.99 1,268 71% 38k $380k (exactly $380,020) MONKEYCRAFT Co. Ltd.
Seen · EA older $0.99 9,326 91% 280k $277k (exactly $276,982) Seen Games
Trip to Vinelands older $4.99 1,572 85% 47k $235k (exactly $235,328) Walter Machado
Relooted $14.99 257 87% 7.7k $116k (exactly $115,573) Nyamakop
WASD : The Adventure of Tori $3.99 730 83% 22k $87k (exactly $87,381) EVNA Games
[Chilla's Art] Hanako | 花子さん older $7.99 229 75% 6.9k $55k (exactly $54,891) Chilla's Art
Stardust Skate $2.99 299 98% 9.0k $27k (exactly $26,820) VchiBan, Aetha
Steal The Pig $4.99 74 85% 2.2k $11k (exactly $11,078) BAA Games
Memori · EA $14.99 22 95% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) PracticalNPC
Fiendish Quest $9.99 23 73% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) オニチク屋!
2 Bows 1 Arrow $6.99 28 100% 840 $5.9k (exactly $5,872) SKL Games
Misty Onsen $5.99 32 56% 960 $5.8k (exactly $5,750) 神 SHEN
Campfire: Night One $14.99 12 91% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Prisca, Mezey Krisztián
Zerun: The Tiny Planet $7.99 16 100% 480 $3.8k (exactly $3,835) Mirakar Studio, CINEMAX GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.