Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Psychological Horror

Of 46 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 121 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1502 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 121 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 121 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.2k → $18k → $897 → $1.9k → $4.2k → $29k → $7.3k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,394)
Top 25% $51k (exactly $50,661)
Top 5% $713k (exactly $713,483)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 140
Announced 121
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Multiple Endings
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 21,487 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 5 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 121 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Library Of Ruina older $29.99 40,605 94% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,532,318) ProjectMoon
WORLD OF HORROR older $19.99 8,991 89% 270k $5.4M (exactly $5,391,903) panstasz
Fear & Hunger 2: Termina older $11.99 14,232 97% 427k $5.1M (exactly $5,119,250) Miro Haverinen
Fear & Hunger older $7.99 20,881 94% 626k $5.0M (exactly $5,005,176) Miro Haverinen
In Stars And Time older $19.99 7,835 97% 235k $4.7M (exactly $4,698,650) insertdisc5
Karryn's Prison older $29.99 4,414 95% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,971,276) Remtairy
BLACK SOULS $13.99 7,337 95% 220k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
BLUE REFLECTION: Second Light older $59.99 948 82% 28k $1.7M (exactly $1,706,116) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Hylics 2 older $14.99 3,158 96% 95k $1.4M (exactly $1,420,153) Mason Lindroth
OFF $14.99 3,093 95% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,390,922) Mortis Ghost, Fangamer
Out Of Hands $17.99 1,322 93% 40k $713k (exactly $713,483) Game River
Deep Sleep: Labyrinth of the Forsaken $19.99 595 94% 18k $357k (exactly $356,822) scriptwelder
The NOexistenceN of Morphean Paradox : The Forest of Silver Shallots · EA $6.99 1,697 72% 51k $356k (exactly $355,861) 0x0Real Studio
Vultures - Scavengers of Death $17.99 532 81% 16k $287k (exactly $287,120) Team Vultures
Fuga: Melodies of Steel 3 $39.99 220 89% 6.6k $264k (exactly $263,934) CyberConnect2
NO-SKIN $6.99 1,227 95% 37k $257k (exactly $257,302) NoEye-Soft
Nightmare Frontier $24.99 187 69% 5.6k $140k (exactly $140,194) Ice Code Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.