Do I ship it?

GamesTime ManipulationTime Manipulation + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Time Manipulation game?

Time Manipulation + Psychological Horror

Only 19 developers shipped a Psychological-Horror Time Manipulation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Super Drift Blade, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $73k, ×155 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 40 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 40 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Time Manipulation + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $896 → $3.9k → $1.7k → $628 → $980 → $1.2k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Time Manipulation + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $628 (exactly $628)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,092)
Top 5% $74k (exactly $73,605)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 76
Announced 40
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Time Manipulation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Exploration
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 2,333 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $630, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $73k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Time Manipulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DemonsFair14 devs · median $2.7k · 9 announced
  2. + CapitalismFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + ModernFair12 devs · median $987 · 9 announced
  4. + PsychologicalFair18 devs · median $897 · 17 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair10 devs · median $657 · 15 announced
  6. + RacingFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair22 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  8. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 24 announced
  9. + RobotsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 16 announced
  10. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced
  11. + DetectivePoor odds16 devs · median $6.5k · 32 announced
  12. + NoirPoor odds9 devs · median $6.5k · 15 announced

All 103 pairs on the Time Manipulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Silent Age older $9.99 5,966 93% 179k $1.8M (exactly $1,788,010) House On Fire
NUTS older $24.99 884 88% 27k $663k (exactly $662,735) Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi
Homebody older $19.99 632 93% 19k $379k (exactly $379,010) Game Grumps
Tree Simulator 2022 older $5.99 1,022 97% 31k $184k (exactly $183,653) Revmatek
ChronoClock older $29.99 151 91% 4.5k $136k (exactly $135,855) Purple Software
The Gap older $19.99 155 94% 4.7k $93k (exactly $92,954) Label This
Super Drift Blade $6.99 351 94% 11k $74k (exactly $73,605) Liujiajun
Re:Turn - One Way Trip older $11.99 132 79% 4.0k $47k (exactly $47,480) Red Ego Games
HORROR TALES: The Beggar older $11.99 127 84% 3.8k $46k (exactly $45,682) CarlosGameDev
Paragnosia $3.99 228 92% 6.8k $27k (exactly $27,292) Sine Coda
Paragnosia: Museum $5.99 139 87% 4.2k $25k (exactly $24,978) Sine Coda
Coconut Simulator $0.99 735 96% 22k $22k (exactly $21,830) Dynamic Games
Coconut Simulator 2 $0.99 621 96% 19k $18k (exactly $18,444) Dynamic Games
Hank: Drowning On Dry Land $2.99 140 95% 4.2k $13k (exactly $12,558) My Next Games
The Time Machine $9.99 35 97% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Lionel Marsden
A Pinball Game That Makes You Mad $9.99 27 81% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Azimuth Studios
The Office Void $1.49 53 86% 1.6k $2.4k (exactly $2,369) Coldheart Entertainment
Mental Hellacious $13.99 4 50% 120 $1.7k (exactly $1,679) MoreNEWttoStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.