Games › Turn-Based Combat › Turn-Based Combat + Post-apocalyptic
Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Turn-Based Combat game?
Turn-Based Combat + Post-apocalyptic
Of 63 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 174 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×8.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3511 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 174 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.1k (exactly $5,095) |
| Top 25% | $48k (exactly $47,976) |
| Top 5% | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 63 |
| Released games | 241 |
| Announced | 174 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based Combat
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Post-apocalyptic
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based Combat; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Tactics, Turn-Based Strategy
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Isometric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 243,308 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 174 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashStrong odds
- + RomeFair
- + CookingFair
- + UndergroundFair
- + IdlerFair
- + DiceFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + SolitaireFair
Comparable games
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 2025 · $272M 
XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M 
Mewgenics 2026 · $45M 
Wasteland 3 2020 · $21M 
Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden 2018 · $14M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 | $49.99 | 181,667 95% | 5.5M | $272M (exactly $272,446,000) | Sandfall Interactive | |
| | XCOM® 2 | older | $19.99 | 79,998 84% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,974,801) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Mewgenics | $29.99 | 49,996 89% | 1.5M | $45M (exactly $44,981,401) | Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel | |
| | Wasteland 3 | older | $39.99 | 17,263 84% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,710,421) | inXile Entertainment |
| | Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden | older | $34.99 | 13,305 89% | 399k | $14M (exactly $13,966,258) | The Bearded Ladies |
 | The Last Spell | older | $24.99 | 13,260 91% | 398k | $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) | Ishtar Games |
 | Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster | older | $49.99 | 3,989 87% | 120k | $6.0M (exactly $5,982,303) | ATLUS |
 | Fallout: A Post Nuclear Role Playing Game | older | $9.99 | 16,722 95% | 502k | $5.0M (exactly $5,011,583) | Interplay Inc. |
 | ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game | older | $14.99 | 9,991 84% | 300k | $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) | AtomTeam |
 | Fallout 2: A Post Nuclear Role Playing Game | older | $9.99 | 13,868 93% | 416k | $4.2M (exactly $4,156,240) | Black Isle Studios |
 | Cyber Knights: Flashpoint | $29.99 | 2,926 93% | 88k | $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) | Trese Brothers | |
 | ZEPHON | $39.99 | 1,838 83% | 55k | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) | Proxy Studios | |
 | Artis Impact | $18.99 | 2,308 84% | 69k | $1.3M (exactly $1,314,868) | Mas | |
 | Stellar Tactics | $24.99 | 1,666 77% | 50k | $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) | Don Wilkins | |
 | As We Descend | · EA | $19.99 | 1,336 86% | 40k | $801k (exactly $801,199) | Box Dragon |
 | Urban Strife | $34.99 | 653 69% | 20k | $685k (exactly $685,454) | White Pond Games | |
 | Chains of Freedom | $24.99 | 520 80% | 16k | $390k (exactly $389,844) | Nordcurrent | |
 | NITRO GEN OMEGA | $29.99 | 398 83% | 12k | $358k (exactly $358,081) | DESTINYbit |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.