Do I ship it?

GamesSurvival HorrorSurvival Horror + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Survival Horror?

Survival Horror + Physics

Of 109 developers who shipped a Physics Survival Horror in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 198 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×715 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 198 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 198 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival Horror + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 109
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $235k → $2.7k → $7.8k → $3.0k → $2.5k → $1.8k → $1.8k (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival Horror + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 109
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,977)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,135)
Top 5% $449k (exactly $449,175)
Developers, 2 yr 109
Released games 259
Announced 198
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival Horror
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival Horror, Physics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 323,163 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 198 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival Horror with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair13 devs · median $31k · 14 announced
  2. + DrivingFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Tower DefenseFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 16 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + SnowFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  6. + SportsFair5 devs · median $959 · 3 announced
  7. + Outbreak SimFair22 devs · median $958 · 24 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterFair27 devs · median $449 · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds10 devs · median $64k · 42 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds17 devs · median $52k · 21 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced

All 159 pairs on the Survival Horror page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
Gorilla Tag older $19.99 52,637 93% 1.6M $32M (exactly $31,566,409) Another Axiom Inc.
City Car Driving older $24.99 33,612 82% 1.0M $25M (exactly $25,198,916) Forward Development, Ltd.
Getting Over It with Bennett Foddy older $7.99 75,118 82% 2.3M $18M (exactly $18,005,785) Bennett Foddy
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
Amnesia: The Dark Descent older $19.99 20,420 95% 613k $12M (exactly $12,245,874) Frictional Games
Amnesia: Rebirth older $29.99 7,894 77% 237k $7.1M (exactly $7,102,232) Frictional Games
Gloomwood · EA older $19.99 7,495 95% 225k $4.5M (exactly $4,494,752) Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Be… (Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Berens, Thomas Porta)
Train Sim World® 3 older $24.99 3,953 79% 119k $3.0M (exactly $2,963,564) Dovetail Games
YAPYAP $9.99 8,385 83% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,512,984) Maison Bap
Burglin' Gnomes $9.99 4,635 83% 139k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) Fobri
Funnel Runners · EA $14.99 2,941 83% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,322,568) Supernova Studios LLC
GRAIN ROT $9.99 1,845 88% 55k $553k (exactly $552,946) Beck & Branch Games
Animal Company · EA $19.99 749 86% 22k $449k (exactly $449,175) Wooster Games
Priest Simulator: Vampire Show $19.99 735 94% 22k $441k (exactly $440,779) Asmodev
Deathground · EA $14.99 877 61% 26k $394k (exactly $394,387) Jaw Drop Games
Z.O.N.A: Origin $19.99 540 83% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) AGaming+
CleanFall · EA $19.99 492 92% 15k $295k (exactly $295,052) Humanyoyo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.