Do I ship it?

GamesSurvival HorrorSurvival Horror + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Survival Horror?

Survival Horror + Perma Death

Of 99 developers who shipped a Perma Death Survival Horror in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 159 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×594 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 159 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 159 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival Horror + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 99
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $1.4k → $3.4k → $449 → $4.5k → $718 → $300 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival Horror + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 99
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $629 (exactly $629)
Top 25% $5.5k (exactly $5,452)
Top 5% $373k (exactly $372,734)
Developers, 2 yr 99
Released games 234
Announced 159
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival Horror
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival Horror, Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 42,768 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $630, 1 in 4 over $5.4k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 7 in 10 of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 159 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival Horror with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair13 devs · median $31k · 14 announced
  2. + DrivingFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Tower DefenseFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 16 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + SnowFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  6. + SportsFair5 devs · median $959 · 3 announced
  7. + Outbreak SimFair22 devs · median $958 · 24 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterFair27 devs · median $449 · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds10 devs · median $64k · 42 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds17 devs · median $52k · 21 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced

All 159 pairs on the Survival Horror page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
Don't Starve older $9.99 97,007 96% 2.9M $29M (exactly $29,072,998) Klei Entertainment
The Quarry older $59.99 16,127 83% 484k $29M (exactly $29,023,762) Supermassive Games
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
State of Decay: YOSE older $19.99 10,526 82% 316k $6.3M (exactly $6,312,442) Undead Labs
Five Nights at Freddy's 2 older $7.99 23,871 93% 716k $5.7M (exactly $5,721,879) Scott Cawthon
Baldi's Basics Plus · EA older $9.99 10,895 97% 327k $3.3M (exactly $3,265,232) Basically Games
Nuclear Nightmare · EA $6.99 15,403 81% 462k $3.2M (exactly $3,230,009) BG Productions
Spark in the Dark · EA $16.99 1,174 87% 35k $598k (exactly $598,388) Stellar Fish
Paranoia Place: Escape Together $7.99 1,555 87% 47k $373k (exactly $372,734) Bloody Pixel Games
House of Necrosis $11.99 581 94% 17k $209k (exactly $208,986) Warkus
UNDERWARD $9.99 593 73% 18k $178k (exactly $177,722) INTENSE
MOLDRISE $11.99 486 96% 15k $175k (exactly $174,814) Raffaele Picca
Subterror $7.99 397 90% 12k $95k (exactly $95,161) Team Monumental
Peregrino $16.99 174 65% 5.2k $89k (exactly $88,688) Inverge Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.