Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Ninja

Only 14 developers shipped a Ninja Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Half-Demon Shinobi, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×9.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×652 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 12 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 12 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $19k → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $6.0k (exactly $5,994)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,181)
Top 5% $409k (exactly $409,487)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 34
Announced 12
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 1,803 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $6.0k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shogun Showdown older $14.99 6,197 95% 186k $2.8M (exactly $2,786,791) Roboatino
RONIN older $12.99 1,613 71% 48k $629k (exactly $628,586) Tomasz Wacławek
Half-Demon Shinobi $10.99 1,242 89% 37k $409k (exactly $409,487) 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機
Mahokenshi - The Samurai Deckbuilder older $24.99 464 77% 14k $348k (exactly $347,861) Game Source Studio
Sakura Gozen $16.99 320 96% 9.6k $163k (exactly $163,104) kaniheadcrab
Tricking 0 · EA older $19.99 107 89% 3.2k $64k (exactly $64,168) Full-in Studios
Treachery in Beatdown City older $19.99 72 76% 2.2k $43k (exactly $43,178) NuChallenger, HurakanWorks
Red Ronin older $7.99 119 87% 3.6k $29k (exactly $28,524) Wired Dreams Studio
Shadowed: The Demon Castle of Ooe $15.99 56 92% 1.7k $27k (exactly $26,863) Lab Rabbit Games ltd
Disgraced older $9.99 76 84% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) Corrosive Studios LLC
Arashi Gaiden $9.99 64 95% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) Statera Studio, Wired Dreams Studio
Ninja Ordinance $13.99 34 73% 1.0k $14k (exactly $14,270) OneCoin
戦国英雄譚-Samurai Heroes- $9.99 47 89% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) hizaniya games
Shogun Curse $9.99 20 60% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Oh Baby Games
Nightmarena $5.99 15 93% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) Colo Coko
Last Shinobi $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) Dark Tomato Studio
Disintegral $11.99 2 100% 60 $719 (exactly $719) Will Sykes Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.