Do I ship it?

Games › Runner › Runner + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Runner?

Runner + Ninja

Only 12 developers shipped a Ninja Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, RHYTHMKILL, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $0 in the last 2 years and $30 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $0 → $1.8k → $0 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Runner + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $0 (exactly $0)
Top 25% $449 (exactly $449)
Top 5% $13k (exactly $13,486)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 42
Announced 13
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Runner
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 5 games average 86% positive over 56 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $0, 1 in 4 over $440, 1 in 20 over $13k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Ghostrunner 2 2023 · $9.6M Ninja Pizza Girl 2015 · $21k 《Drifting : Weight of Feathers》 2021 · $17k RHYTHMKILL 2026 · $13k Tokyo Rogue 2022 · $5.5k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghostrunner 2 older $39.99 7,981 80% 239k $9.6M (exactly $9,574,806) One More Level
Ninja Pizza Girl older $6.99 101 86% 3.0k $21k (exactly $21,180) Disparity Games
《Drifting : Weight of Feathers》 older $11.99 48 72% 1.4k $17k (exactly $17,266) MING YEN WU
RHYTHMKILL $9.99 45 82% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) GETTAKE
Tokyo Rogue older $12.99 14 100% 420 $5.5k (exactly $5,456) Lunacy Labs Ltd.
NINJA KAMUI: SHINOBI ORIGINS $19.99 6 100% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) G.rev Ltd.
Katana Robo: RTA older $7.99 15 66% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Twins Halo
Project Kunai older $4.99 15 86% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Hypnos Games
Ninja Chowdown: Glaze of Glory older $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Dummy Dojo
Tenko's Magical Sword Quest older $2.99 8 100% 240 $718 (exactly $718) LVGames
Backflip Madness 2 $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Hubert Śliwka
Forgotten spirit $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) BurningGRP
Nin Ninja RESCUE MISSION $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Caktus Games
Ninja Former $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) atCanis
The Legend of URE $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) James H. Van der Meulen
Stranded at Sea $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Owen Delwiche, Preston Lindley, James G… (Owen Delwiche, Preston Lindley, James Goodwin)
Shininja $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Synith Games
DODGE-AND-RUN! $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) MizufeedGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.