Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Combat › Turn-Based Combat + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Naval

Only 12 developers shipped a Naval Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rogue Waters, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1368 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 12 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 12 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $899 → $25k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,863)
Top 5% $859k (exactly $859,214)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 35
Announced 12
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$13.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 1,123 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Port Royale 4 2020 · $1.7M Rogue Waters 2024 · $859k Strategic Mind: The Pacific 2019 · $484k Nantucket 2018 · $422k Tortuga - A Pirate's Tale 2024 · $99k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Strategic Mind: The Pacific older $29.99 538 74% 16k $484k (exactly $484,039) Starni Games
Nantucket older $17.99 782 78% 23k $422k (exactly $422,045) Picaresque Games
Tortuga - A Pirate's Tale older $24.99 132 51% 4.0k $99k (exactly $98,960) Gaming Minds Studios
Civil War: Battle of Petersburg older $11.99 226 82% 6.8k $81k (exactly $81,292) Cult Software
Sunrider Legends Tactics $29.99 40 80% 1.2k $36k (exactly $35,988) Love in Space
Naval Hurricane · EA older $9.99 91 91% 2.7k $27k (exactly $27,273) Efril
Tactical Annihilation $15.99 56 98% 1.7k $27k (exactly $26,863) B.G. Game Studio
Dread Admiral $13.99 59 89% 1.8k $25k (exactly $24,762) Tescrin Games
Battleships and Carriers 2: 1940-1945 $15.99 5 60% 150 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) SLS
Old Salt $14.99 2 50% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Kneeshaw Developments, Never Board Games
Midway 1981 $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) David Riggle
Coup Ahoo $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Antti Haavikko
Pirate Sagas: The Golden Age · EA $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Pirate Sagas
Caribbean Prospector · EA $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Denis Salanta

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.