Do I ship it?

Games › Time Manipulation › Time Manipulation + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Time Manipulation game?

Time Manipulation + Nature

Only 13 developers shipped a Nature Time Manipulation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Toroban, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240, ×0.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 23 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper, while revenue is down 90% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 23 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Time Manipulation + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.0k → $3.4k → $1.6k → $2.4k → $148 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Time Manipulation + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $240 (exactly $240)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,414)
Top 5% $36k (exactly $36,000)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 48
Announced 23
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Time Manipulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Logic, Open World, Physics
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $20.00 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Atmospheric, Minimalist
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $20.00 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 182 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $240, 1 in 4 over $3.4k, 1 in 20 over $36k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Time Manipulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DemonsFair14 devs · median $2.7k · 9 announced
  2. + CapitalismFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + ModernFair12 devs · median $987 · 9 announced
  4. + PsychologicalFair18 devs · median $897 · 17 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair10 devs · median $657 · 15 announced
  6. + RacingFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair22 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  8. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 24 announced
  9. + RobotsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 16 announced
  10. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced
  11. + DetectivePoor odds16 devs · median $6.5k · 32 announced
  12. + NoirPoor odds9 devs · median $6.5k · 15 announced

All 103 pairs on the Time Manipulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Arise: A Simple Story 2020 · $1.6M NUTS 2021 · $663k Hourglass 2021 · $199k Timeloop: Sink Again Beach 2022 · $126k Inua - A Story in Ice and Time 2022 · $36k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Arise: A Simple Story older $19.99 2,723 91% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,632,983) Piccolo Studio
NUTS older $24.99 884 88% 27k $663k (exactly $662,735) Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi
Hourglass older $19.99 331 88% 9.9k $199k (exactly $198,501) Cyberwave
Timeloop: Sink Again Beach older $11.99 350 90% 11k $126k (exactly $125,895) Fang's Lab, Flatcoon
Inua - A Story in Ice and Time older $14.99 81 93% 2.4k $36k (exactly $36,426) The Pixel Hunt, IKO, ARTE France
Toroban $20.00 60 86% 1.8k $36k (exactly $36,000) Hebert Games LLC
Big Earth older $24.99 37 89% 1.1k $28k (exactly $27,739) PlayPlay Studios
Winds & Leaves older $29.99 28 64% 840 $25k (exactly $25,192) TREBUCHET
We Are One older $9.99 75 93% 2.3k $22k (exactly $22,478) Flat Head Studio
Huge Jaws older $24.99 23 65% 690 $17k (exactly $17,243) Piece Of Voxel
Accretion $9.99 21 38% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) ValarFerys
Hot Springs | 温泉 (Onsen) $3.99 51 74% 1.5k $6.1k (exactly $6,105) Peach Party
Raster $5.99 19 100% 570 $3.4k (exactly $3,414) Rchair Studio
Wild Script: Nature · EA $4.99 16 93% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Surdarium
Stop the Blight $12.99 4 50% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) Bouncy Washer
Time to Try $1.00 8 100% 240 $240 (exactly $240) Wagon Head
Nuktedan: The Forgotten Emotions · EA $7.79 1 100% 30 $234 (exactly $234) Saydexi
World Sprint $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) AKD Studios LLC
Golden Lies $4.95 1 100% 30 $148 (exactly $148) cat_vision

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.