Do I ship it?

GamesTabletopTabletop + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Tabletop game?

Tabletop + Nature

Of 42 developers who shipped a Nature Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 25 developers shipped in the last year and 39 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 39 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tabletop + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $419 → $592 → $359 → $1.7k → $950 → $179 (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tabletop + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $298 (exactly $298)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 5% $59k (exactly $58,682)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 174
Announced 39
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Tabletop; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,046 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tabletop with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BuildingFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  2. + CRPGFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  3. + RTSFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  4. + MilitaryFair30 devs · median $1.4k · 20 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  6. + DragonsFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + MahjongFair26 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  8. + WargameFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  9. + SpaceFair29 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  10. + CapitalismFair35 devs · median $807 · 33 announced
  11. + HorrorFair50 devs · median $776 · 51 announced
  12. + Local Co-OpFair31 devs · median $748 · 33 announced

All 155 pairs on the Tabletop page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wingspan older $19.99 9,807 94% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,881,258) Monster Couch
Spirit Island older $24.99 1,545 91% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,158,286) Handelabra Games Inc.
Quilts and Cats of Calico older $19.99 405 93% 12k $243k (exactly $242,878) Monster Couch
Cascadia $14.99 210 98% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Dire Wolf
Shields of Loyalty $19.99 140 77% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) Mosaic Mask Studio
Mushroom Nook $4.99 392 98% 12k $59k (exactly $58,682) HyperstasisGaming
Stone Age: Digital Edition older $14.99 82 82% 2.5k $37k (exactly $36,875) Acram Digital, Hans im Glück
Nature Game System $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) North Star Digital Games
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
SpaceCorp: 2025-2300AD $9.99 73 83% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Logix Interactive
Animated Puzzles older $9.99 73 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Mexond
K2: Digital Edition $14.99 20 85% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Devon Games
Game with Friends · EA $5.99 48 64% 1.4k $8.6k (exactly $8,626) Beaf Studio
Wild Country $24.99 11 54% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Lost Native
Rascal's Escape $29.99 6 66% 180 $5.4k (exactly $5,398) the Good Evil GmbH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.