Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Shop Keeper

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Shop Keeper?

Collectathon + Shop Keeper

Of 44 developers who shipped a Collectathon Shop Keeper in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 75 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×26 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2651 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 75 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 75 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Shop Keeper
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $53k → $7.3k → $30k (still earning) → $3.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Shop Keeper: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $12k (exactly $12,288)
Top 25% $81k (exactly $81,219)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,259,160)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 49
Announced 75
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 430% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon, Shop Keeper; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Immersive Sim
Price point
$7.00 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Relaxing, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.00.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 60,625 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $81k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Tiny Bookshop $19.99 6,967 96% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110) neoludic games
Teddy's Haven · EA $14.99 2,800 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,160) Teddy Bear Games LLC
Anime Shop Simulator ✨ $14.99 589 73% 18k $265k (exactly $264,873) One More Time
Tabletop Game Shop Simulator $12.99 480 84% 14k $187k (exactly $187,056) Ludogram, Knight Fever Games
Budgie's Bug Shop $5.99 1,016 96% 30k $183k (exactly $182,575) Moon Lagoon
Mall Together $11.99 415 94% 12k $149k (exactly $149,276) Business Tycoon
Gacha Capsule Shop Simulator - Akihabara · EA $12.40 379 82% 11k $141k (exactly $140,988) UGC90
Arcane Merchant $14.99 280 84% 8.4k $126k (exactly $125,916) Findie Studios
GeckoShop $9.99 342 66% 10k $102k (exactly $102,497) Reptoid

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.