Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Runner?

Runner + Nature

Of 54 developers who shipped a Nature Runner in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $150 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 31 developers shipped in the last year and 63 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 63 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 54
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $90 → $479 → $120 → $386 → $179 → $179 → $449 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Runner + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 54
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $179 (exactly $179)
Top 25% $748 (exactly $748)
Top 5% $8.4k (exactly $8,390)
Developers, 2 yr 54
Released games 173
Announced 63
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Runner; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 531 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $740, 1 in 20 over $8.3k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Eggo $5.99 310 83% 9.3k $56k (exactly $55,707) 天赋一饼 Meme Crepe
Duck Life: Retro Pack older $5.99 242 83% 7.3k $43k (exactly $43,487) Wix Games
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
Kao the Kangaroo (2000 re-release) older $1.99 397 73% 12k $24k (exactly $23,701) Tate Multimedia
Catch a Duck older $4.99 83 80% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,425) Sleepwalking Potatoes
Fox Simulator · EA older $7.99 38 65% 1.1k $9.1k (exactly $9,109) Meng Games
Quack Quack Up $7.99 35 85% 1.1k $8.4k (exactly $8,390) 顽核社 FuncoreClub
RUN! GRANDPA! RUN! older $4.99 56 83% 1.7k $8.4k (exactly $8,383) Egutidze
MeteoHeroes older $19.99 13 100% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Gammera Nest
Venture's Gauntlet: The Ultimate VR Fitness Obstacle Course older $9.99 22 72% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Bearhammer Games LTD
Bananitro $3.99 47 100% 1.4k $5.6k (exactly $5,626) Inventario
Inflafrog: Collector's Edition $4.99 28 100% 840 $4.2k (exactly $4,192) Nice Cream
Garden Hunt $3.99 27 100% 810 $3.2k (exactly $3,232) CREA CLAN, カミエナ / KamiEna
Condemned to Clean $5.99 13 76% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) KOMA
极限求生 Survival X $10.99 7 100% 210 $2.3k (exactly $2,308) 魔术猫
Animal Run Relay $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) youdoyou.motto
ころコロ $8.99 5 100% 150 $1.3k (exactly $1,348) ReplyData

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.