Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological Runner?

Runner + Mythology

Only 11 developers shipped a Mythological Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fresh Tracks, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $358 → $479 → $597 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Runner + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $360 (exactly $360)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,888)
Top 5% $40k (exactly $39,734)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 26
Announced 10
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Runner
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 131 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.8k, 1 in 20 over $39k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Escape from Naraka older $14.99 97 76% 2.9k $44k (exactly $43,621) XeloGames
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
Moto Rush Reborn $12.99 43 97% 1.3k $17k (exactly $16,757) Baltoro Games
TAURONOS older $4.99 48 87% 1.4k $7.2k (exactly $7,186) cavalie_ro, S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L.
Treasure Hunter: History of Monastery Gold older $4.99 26 84% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) Ulab Games
Super Miaoyin $8.99 7 85% 210 $1.9k (exactly $1,888) Hou Xiaohou
The Paupers older $3.99 11 100% 330 $1.3k (exactly $1,317) Microtaur
Candle In Darkness older $4.99 4 50% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Shub-Niggurath Games, ShopaLover
Fumpers: Dual Realms $1.99 10 100% 300 $597 (exactly $597) Fırat Kurt, KurtSoft
Hot Pig Jump! $3.99 4 100% 120 $479 (exactly $479) DekkaRuby Games
Ascension: The Immortal Alchemist · EA $11.99 1 100% 30 $360 (exactly $360) Violet Flame Studios
Yeet Thyself $1.99 6 100% 180 $358 (exactly $358) Terraflop Games
Sisyphus Endures $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) OÜ Vaba Tõlge
After The Afterlife $1.99 5 80% 150 $298 (exactly $298) BugBit Studio
Forgotten spirit $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) BurningGRP

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.