Do I ship it?

GamesTime ManipulationTime Manipulation + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Time Manipulation game?

Time Manipulation + Mystery

Of 42 developers who shipped a Mystery Time Manipulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 96 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×2.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×698 the market median. Revenue is up 555% on the market; 96 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 555% on the market, 96 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Time Manipulation + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.0k → $1.8k → $539 → $299 → $2.3k → $8.9k → $3.1k (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Time Manipulation + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,290)
Top 5% $331k (exactly $331,429)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 115
Announced 96
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 555% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Time Manipulation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 7,313 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 96 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Time Manipulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DemonsFair14 devs · median $2.7k · 9 announced
  2. + CapitalismFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + ModernFair12 devs · median $987 · 9 announced
  4. + PsychologicalFair18 devs · median $897 · 17 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair10 devs · median $657 · 15 announced
  6. + RacingFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair22 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  8. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 24 announced
  9. + RobotsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 16 announced
  10. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced
  11. + DetectivePoor odds16 devs · median $6.5k · 32 announced
  12. + NoirPoor odds9 devs · median $6.5k · 15 announced

All 103 pairs on the Time Manipulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Twelve Minutes older $24.99 7,408 73% 222k $5.6M (exactly $5,553,778) Luis Antonio
The Drifter $19.99 4,735 97% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd
The Sexy Brutale older $19.99 2,895 91% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,736,131) Cavalier Game Studios, Tequila Works
The Gardens Between older $19.99 2,362 93% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) The Voxel Agents
NUTS older $24.99 884 88% 27k $663k (exactly $662,735) Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi
Lucifer Within Us older $19.99 635 73% 19k $381k (exactly $380,809) Kitfox Games
Homebody older $19.99 632 93% 19k $379k (exactly $379,010) Game Grumps
The Posthumous Investigation $19.99 554 94% 17k $332k (exactly $332,234) Mother Gaia Studio
Dinocop $14.99 737 96% 22k $331k (exactly $331,429) Pieces Games
Eternal Threads older $19.99 543 87% 16k $326k (exactly $325,637) Cosmonaut Studios
Kill The Shadow $16.99 447 86% 13k $228k (exactly $227,836) Shadowlight
Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate $49.99 149 62% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) Mighty Eyes
Ever 17 - The Out of Infinity $29.99 182 82% 5.5k $164k (exactly $163,745) MAGES. Inc.
Kulebra and the Souls of Limbo: Closure Edition $19.99 164 99% 4.9k $98k (exactly $98,351) Galla
Orbyss $14.99 68 95% 2.0k $31k (exactly $30,580) Misty Whale
Causal Loop $19.99 49 91% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) Mirebound Interactive
Paragnosia $3.99 228 92% 6.8k $27k (exactly $27,292) Sine Coda

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.