Do I ship it?

GamesSurvival HorrorSurvival Horror + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Survival Horror?

Survival Horror + Mystery

Of 604 developers who shipped a Mystery Survival Horror in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 958 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×322 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 958 games are announced against 345 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 958 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival Horror + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 604
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $3.0k → $1.9k → $2.4k → $1.2k → $1.5k → $1.1k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival Horror + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 604
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 5% $202k (exactly $201,915)
Developers, 2 yr 604
Released games 1,448
Announced 958
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival Horror
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival Horror; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 352,335 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 313 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 958 games are announced against 345 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival Horror with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair13 devs · median $31k · 14 announced
  2. + DrivingFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Tower DefenseFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 16 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + SnowFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  6. + SportsFair5 devs · median $959 · 3 announced
  7. + Outbreak SimFair22 devs · median $958 · 24 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterFair27 devs · median $449 · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds10 devs · median $64k · 42 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds17 devs · median $52k · 21 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced

All 159 pairs on the Survival Horror page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
SOMA older $29.99 46,772 95% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,080,768) Frictional Games
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Ghostwire: Tokyo older $59.99 12,954 83% 389k $23M (exactly $23,313,314) Tango Gameworks
Alan Wake older $14.99 45,662 89% 1.4M $21M (exactly $20,534,201) Remedy Entertainment
SIGNALIS older $19.99 30,601 96% 918k $18M (exactly $18,351,420) rose-engine
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
Bendy and the Ink Machine older $19.99 26,232 90% 787k $16M (exactly $15,731,330) Joey Drew Studios
Demonologist older $19.99 18,886 85% 567k $11M (exactly $11,325,934) Clock Wizard Games
Look Outside $9.99 13,586 98% 408k $4.1M (exactly $4,071,724) Francis Coulombe
Shift At Midnight $9.99 10,147 88% 304k $3.0M (exactly $3,041,056) Bun Muen
Enigma of Fear $29.99 3,045 95% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) Dumativa, Cellbit
Crisol: Theater of Idols $17.99 4,103 85% 123k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,389) Vermila Studios
The Sinking City 2 $49.99 1,410 83% 42k $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) Frogwares
Slitterhead $49.99 1,145 78% 34k $1.7M (exactly $1,717,156) Bokeh Game Studio lnc.
Tormented Souls 2 $29.99 1,675 88% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,506,998) Dual Effect
Murky Divers $8.99 3,981 87% 119k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,676) Embers

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.