Do I ship it?

Games › Procedural Generation › Procedural Generation + Music

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Music

Only 14 developers shipped a Music Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Nebula Flow, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $19k, ×42 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 25 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 25 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Music
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $297 → $0 (still earning) → $358 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Music: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $358 (exactly $358)
Top 25% $1.7k (exactly $1,710)
Top 5% $20k (exactly $19,969)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 60
Announced 25
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Music
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Combat
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.00 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.00 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 9 games average 98% positive over 107 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $19k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Crypt of the NecroDancer 2015 · $11M BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE 2020 · $5.8M AudioSurf 2008 · $2.7M Audiosurf 2 2015 · $2.4M Melody's Escape 2016 · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crypt of the NecroDancer older $14.99 23,593 95% 708k $11M (exactly $10,609,772) Brace Yourself Games
BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE older $19.99 9,598 91% 288k $5.8M (exactly $5,755,921) Awe Interactive
AudioSurf older $9.99 8,901 95% 267k $2.7M (exactly $2,667,630) Dylan Fitterer
Audiosurf 2 older $14.99 5,364 82% 161k $2.4M (exactly $2,412,191) Dylan Fitterer
Melody's Escape older $9.99 4,336 92% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,299,499) Icetesy
Soundfall older $29.99 996 73% 30k $896k (exactly $896,101) Drastic Games
Beat Hazard 2 older $18.99 1,396 89% 42k $795k (exactly $795,301) Cold Beam Games
Proteus older $9.99 1,420 82% 43k $426k (exactly $425,574) Ed Key and David Kanaga
Rising Star 2 older $19.99 670 94% 20k $402k (exactly $401,799) Gilligames
Mountain older $0.99 12,921 88% 388k $384k (exactly $383,754) David OReilly
Nebula Flow $17.99 37 97% 1.1k $20k (exactly $19,969) After Nap Games
KILLBEAT $9.99 24 100% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Kalma Games
Snowlike $7.99 14 92% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) captinbeefy
Sound Syndicate $19.00 3 100% 90 $1.7k (exactly $1,710) NiTToN
LightBreak $5.99 7 100% 210 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) Deev Interactive
Rhythm Racer · EA $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) Elusive Byte
Mandala $1.99 6 100% 180 $358 (exactly $358) Divora
StreetSync $0.99 10 100% 300 $297 (exactly $297) Tyler L
Scooter Slayer $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Kulix Games
Beatlow $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Windfall Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.