Do I ship it?

GamesPlatformerPlatformer + Music

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music Platformer?

Platformer + Music

Of 30 developers who shipped a Music Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×269 the market median. Revenue is up 2900% on the market; 50 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 2900% on the market, 50 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Platformer + Music
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.9k → $540 → $53k → $1.2k → $600 → $299 → $8.2k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Platformer + Music: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $600 (exactly $600)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,092)
Top 5% $128k (exactly $127,715)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 175
Announced 50
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2900% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Music
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Colorful, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 1,305 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  2. + PinballStrong odds10 devs · median $2.5k · 6 announced
  3. + Combat RacingFair28 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  4. + FMVFair9 devs · median $899 · 10 announced
  5. + SimulationFair281 devs · median $628 · 235 announced
  6. + Grid-Based MovementFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  7. + AutomationFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  8. + Turn-Based TacticsLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $7.2k · 90 announced
  10. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds32 devs · median $6.5k · 90 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $5.8k · 38 announced
  12. + SkateboardingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced

All 206 pairs on the Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Geometry Dash older $4.99 595,606 93% 18M $89M (exactly $89,162,218) RobTop Games
Hi-Fi RUSH older $29.99 27,454 97% 824k $25M (exactly $24,700,364) Tango Gameworks
Valiant Hearts: The Great War™ / Soldats Inconnus : Mémoires de la Grande Guerre™ older $14.99 24,468 95% 734k $11M (exactly $11,003,260) Ubisoft Montpellier
Rayman® Legends older $29.99 11,420 89% 343k $10M (exactly $10,274,574) Ubisoft Montpellier
In Sound Mind older $34.99 5,467 95% 164k $5.7M (exactly $5,738,710) We Create Stuff
Wandersong older $19.99 2,185 96% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,344) Wishes Ultd., Greg Lobanov, A Shell in… (Wishes Ultd., Greg Lobanov, A Shell in the Pit)
Melody's Escape older $9.99 4,336 92% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,299,499) Icetesy
The Artful Escape older $19.99 1,801 91% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,080,060) Beethoven and Dinosaur
FRAMED Collection older $9.99 2,336 94% 70k $700k (exactly $700,099) Loveshack Entertainment
Hextech Mayhem: A League of Legends Story™ older $9.99 2,238 79% 67k $671k (exactly $670,729) Choice Provisions
Mr. Sleepy Man $19.99 636 98% 19k $381k (exactly $381,409) Devin Santi
Melody's Escape 2 $14.99 284 95% 8.5k $128k (exactly $127,715) Icetesy
Nientum - Op.ZERO · EA $19.99 159 98% 4.8k $95k (exactly $95,352) QueseraGames
Magic Tiny Lands $29.99 86 90% 2.6k $77k (exactly $77,374) Galactic Geckon
Marsupilami 2 - Salsa Palombia $24.99 28 100% 840 $21k (exactly $20,992) Ocellus Studio
PixelJunk™ Eden 2 $14.99 23 78% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Q-Games Ltd.
After School Afterlife $7.99 34 100% 1.0k $8.2k (exactly $8,150) Mini Bunnies
A Pinball Game That Makes You Mad $9.99 27 81% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Azimuth Studios
The Oneironaut $14.99 13 100% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Jetebra Games
BassBlock $9.99 15 86% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) 贝斯方块工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.