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Should I ship a Multiple Endings Visual Novel?
Multiple Endings + Visual Novel
Of 1,403 developers who shipped a Multiple Endings Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,082 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×8.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×720 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 2,082 games are announced against 837 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $748 (exactly $748) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.0k (exactly $4,042) |
| Top 25% | $29k (exactly $29,385) |
| Top 5% | $342k (exactly $341,772) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 1,403 |
| Released games | 4,417 |
| Announced | 2,082 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Multiple Endings
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Multiple Endings, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Adventure, Dating Sim
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 139,168 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $750. 7 in 10 of the 853 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,082 games are announced against 837 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Multiple Endings with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + WuxiaFair
- + Level EditorFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + SuperheroFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + GamblingFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Arena ShooterFair
Comparable games
The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series 2020 · $55M 
Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M 
Senren＊Banka 2020 · $35M 
Magical Girl Witch Trials 2025 · $27M 
NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD 2022 · $26M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series | older | $49.99 | 36,594 96% | 1.1M | $55M (exactly $54,880,022) | Skybound Games |
| | Persona 4 Golden | older | $19.99 | 71,306 97% | 2.1M | $43M (exactly $42,762,208) | ATLUS |
| | Senren＊Banka | older | $34.99 | 33,721 98% | 1.0M | $35M (exactly $35,396,934) | YUZUSOFT |
| | Magical Girl Witch Trials | $29.99 | 29,869 96% | 896k | $27M (exactly $26,873,139) | Acacia, Re,AER | |
| | NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD | older | $15.99 | 54,053 94% | 1.6M | $26M (exactly $25,929,224) | WSS playground, xemono |
 | STEINS;GATE | older | $29.99 | 25,289 97% | 759k | $23M (exactly $22,752,513) | MAGES. Inc. |
 | The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty | older | $9.99 | 49,765 94% | 1.5M | $15M (exactly $14,914,570) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) |
 | Volcano Princess | older | $10.99 | 45,019 97% | 1.4M | $15M (exactly $14,842,764) | 养蛋人 Egg Hatcher |
 | The Wolf Among Us | older | $14.99 | 32,494 97% | 975k | $15M (exactly $14,612,552) | Telltale |
 | Summer Memories | older | $19.99 | 24,113 92% | 723k | $14M (exactly $14,460,566) | Dojin Otome |
 | The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- | $59.99 | 6,893 88% | 207k | $12M (exactly $12,405,332) | Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc. | |
 | Revenge on gold diggers | $6.99 | 46,610 80% | 1.4M | $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) | 前方工作室 | |
 | Date Everything! | $29.99 | 6,629 93% | 199k | $6.0M (exactly $5,964,111) | Sassy Chap Games | |
 | Road to Empress Ⅱ | $18.00 | 7,773 80% | 233k | $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) | New One Studio | |
 | Five Hearts Under One Roof | $19.99 | 5,881 91% | 176k | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) | Storytaco | |
 | Magical Princess | $14.99 | 7,636 96% | 229k | $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) | Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc. | |
 | Homicipher | $13.99 | 7,821 96% | 235k | $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) | 八名木Games | |
 | Road to Empress I | $8.49 | 11,829 86% | 355k | $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) | New One Studio | |
 | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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