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Should I ship a Multiple Endings Puzzle game?
Multiple Endings + Puzzle
Of 803 developers who shipped a Multiple Endings Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,373 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $330; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×480 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,373 games are announced against 471 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $330 (exactly $330) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,319) |
| Top 25% | $8.9k (exactly $8,902) |
| Top 5% | $228k (exactly $227,836) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 803 |
| Released games | 2,093 |
| Announced | 1,373 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Multiple Endings
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Puzzle
- effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Multiple Endings, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 47,207 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $330. 8 in 10 of the 402 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,373 games are announced against 471 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Multiple Endings with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + WuxiaFair
- + Level EditorFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + SuperheroFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + GamblingFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Arena ShooterFair
Comparable games
INSIDE 2016 · $52M 
The Talos Principle 2014 · $26M 
Papers, Please 2013 · $22M 
Return of the Obra Dinn 2018 · $19M 
The Stanley Parable 2013 · $18M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | INSIDE | older | $24.99 | 69,791 97% | 2.1M | $52M (exactly $52,322,313) | Playdead |
| | The Talos Principle | older | $29.99 | 29,237 95% | 877k | $26M (exactly $26,304,529) | Croteam |
| | Papers, Please | older | $9.99 | 73,406 97% | 2.2M | $22M (exactly $21,999,778) | Lucas Pope |
| | Return of the Obra Dinn | older | $19.99 | 32,309 96% | 969k | $19M (exactly $19,375,707) | Lucas Pope |
| | The Stanley Parable | older | $14.99 | 40,292 92% | 1.2M | $18M (exactly $18,119,312) | Galactic Cafe |
 | OneShot | older | $9.99 | 59,201 98% | 1.8M | $18M (exactly $17,742,540) | Future Cat LLC |
 | The Coffin of Andy and Leyley | · EA older | $11.99 | 36,603 96% | 1.1M | $13M (exactly $13,166,099) | Kit9 Studio |
 | House Party | older | $24.99 | 13,968 85% | 419k | $10M (exactly $10,471,810) | Eek! Games, LLC |
 | Fate Seeker | older | $21.09 | 11,930 90% | 358k | $7.5M (exactly $7,548,111) | JSL Entertainment |
 | Strange Horticulture | older | $15.99 | 14,867 94% | 446k | $7.1M (exactly $7,131,700) | Bad Viking |
 | Endacopia | $16.50 | 6,474 99% | 194k | $3.2M (exactly $3,204,630) | Andyland | |
 | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
 | Enigma of Fear | $29.99 | 3,045 95% | 91k | $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) | Dumativa, Cellbit | |
 | Mandate Of Heaven | $14.99 | 5,446 91% | 163k | $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) | 木焱工作室 | |
 | Whisper of the House | $14.99 | 5,344 96% | 160k | $2.4M (exactly $2,403,197) | 元气弹工作室(GD Studio) | |
 | Beholder: Conductor | $13.99 | 4,532 91% | 136k | $1.9M (exactly $1,902,080) | Alawar | |
 | Strange Antiquities | $17.99 | 3,288 95% | 99k | $1.8M (exactly $1,774,534) | Bad Viking | |
 | OneShot: World Machine Edition | $9.99 | 5,349 98% | 160k | $1.6M (exactly $1,603,095) | Future Cat LLC | |
 | Disney Epic Mickey: Rebrushed | $39.99 | 1,275 93% | 38k | $1.5M (exactly $1,529,618) | Purple Lamp | |
 | 月华辉映之刻 | $11.99 | 4,227 89% | 127k | $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) | 侠客狗工作室 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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