Do I ship it?

GamesMultiple EndingsMultiple Endings + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Multiple Endings game?

Multiple Endings + Ninja

Only 10 developers shipped a Ninja Multiple Endings game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rise of the Ronin, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced, ×10.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.3k against a market of $630. 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 10 announced, ×10.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Multiple Endings + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $14k → $3.0k
Outcomes for Multiple Endings + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Top 5% $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 30
Announced 10
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 90% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Multiple Endings
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 64% positive over 6,571 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $9.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×10.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Multiple Endings with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  2. + WuxiaFair11 devs · median $230k · 18 announced
  3. + Level EditorFair17 devs · median $8.1k · 23 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair32 devs · median $5.8k · 42 announced
  5. + SuperheroFair15 devs · median $4.5k · 22 announced
  6. + 4 Player LocalFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  8. + GamblingFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  9. + TriviaFair14 devs · median $1.7k · 15 announced
  10. + Score AttackFair40 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair176 devs · median $598 · 180 announced
  12. + Arena ShooterFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced

All 214 pairs on the Multiple Endings page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
LIVE A LIVE older $49.99 785 85% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,177,264) Square Enix, historia Inc.
Way of the Samurai 3 older $19.99 871 73% 26k $522k (exactly $522,339) ACQUIRE Corp.
Fallen Shinobi SS. older $14.99 971 92% 29k $437k (exactly $436,659) marron☆marron
Lkyt. older $44.99 181 95% 5.4k $244k (exactly $244,296) parade
Nine-Tailed Okitsune Tale older $17.99 297 95% 8.9k $160k (exactly $160,291) ChaoGames
Ninja Stealth 2 older $4.99 667 70% 20k $100k (exactly $99,850) SC Jogos
NEKO-NIN exHeart 2 older $9.99 279 95% 8.4k $84k (exactly $83,616) Whirlpool
Meifumado older $14.99 159 50% 4.8k $72k (exactly $71,502) Old Bit Studio
Secret Agent older $24.99 26 65% 780 $19k (exactly $19,492) ensemble
Ninja Ordinance $13.99 34 73% 1.0k $14k (exactly $14,270) OneCoin
Kaodi $4.99 20 85% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Outlander Co.
NatsumeRyoran - Romance of Hi-Spec Yoko - $24.99 2 50% 60 $1.5k (exactly $1,499) CyberStep, Inc.
Assassin's Shadows $14.99 3 66% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) Noxurtica
Glusiverse · EA $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Trusiga
Yogoe Hunter $6.99 3 33% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Studio Justice
Cybernetic Ninja Nuns $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Good Bad Guy
シノビザムライ/Shinobi Samurai $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) MIZUBLUE GAMES
Kittengumi Short: Chapter 0 $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Guarida Games Studio S.L.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.