Do I ship it?

GamesTabletopTabletop + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Tabletop game?

Tabletop + Modern

Of 21 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $230; 1 in 20 cleared $8.2k, ×17 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 28 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 28 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tabletop + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $8.2k → $4.7k → $4.5k → $179 → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tabletop + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $225 (exactly $225)
Median $600 (exactly $600)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 5% $8.2k (exactly $8,234)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 71
Announced 28
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Tabletop; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Management
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 156 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $230, median $600, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $8.2k.

3 in 10 developers made under $230. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tabletop with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BuildingFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  2. + CRPGFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  3. + RTSFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  4. + MilitaryFair30 devs · median $1.4k · 20 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  6. + DragonsFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + MahjongFair26 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  8. + WargameFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  9. + SpaceFair29 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  10. + CapitalismFair35 devs · median $807 · 33 announced
  11. + HorrorFair50 devs · median $776 · 51 announced
  12. + Local Co-OpFair31 devs · median $748 · 33 announced

All 155 pairs on the Tabletop page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Solitaire Conspiracy older $11.99 742 89% 22k $267k (exactly $266,897) Bithell Games
Lock 'n Load Tactical Digital: Core Game · EA older $4.99 566 82% 17k $85k (exactly $84,730) Lock 'n Load Publishing
Tanto Cuore older $9.99 168 91% 5.0k $50k (exactly $50,350) Japanime Digital, Wedontknow Games
RPG Stories · EA older $29.99 36 77% 1.1k $32k (exactly $32,389) Brave Alice Games
Otoko Cross: Pretty Boys Klondike Solitaire older $6.99 135 86% 4.1k $28k (exactly $28,310) Eastasiasoft Limited
Otoko Cross: Pretty Boys Mahjong Solitaire older $6.99 132 86% 4.0k $28k (exactly $27,680) Eastasiasoft Limited
Takoyaki Party Survival older $2.99 222 94% 6.7k $20k (exactly $19,913) KIMIDORI SOFT
Knotwords older $11.99 54 90% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,424) Zach Gage, Jack Schlesinger
Richman: Clasic older $4.99 111 93% 3.3k $17k (exactly $16,617) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
18Korea older $19.99 27 62% 810 $16k (exactly $16,192) Sinkhole Studio
BeatRider $11.99 32 53% 960 $12k (exactly $11,510) 无限电玩, Combo X Camp
AI Faith: Compute [>_AIFC] $4.99 55 81% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) Beneloop.ai
okey.gg · EA $9.99 16 50% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) yilmaz.games
Straight Up Poker SE $29.99 5 60% 150 $4.5k (exactly $4,498) Jon Wolfe
Yakiniku Party Survival $2.99 27 92% 810 $2.4k (exactly $2,422) KIMIDORI SOFT
Grammar Grind $9.99 4 75% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Skylor Beck
DECK COLLECTOR · EA $11.99 3 66% 90 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) AEROBORN Games
Mahjong Expedition $8.99 4 75% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) COSO
6 Ways To 7 $4.99 7 85% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Axelstems
Solitaire Nights $6.99 3 66% 90 $629 (exactly $629) George Griffin

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.