Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Runner?

Runner + Modern

Only 19 developers shipped a Modern-Day Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, WakuWaku Park, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 14 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 14 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $120 → $239 → $150 → $450 → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Runner + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $238 (exactly $238)
Top 25% $2.3k (exactly $2,336)
Top 5% $75k (exactly $74,970)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 46
Announced 14
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Runner; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Walking Simulator, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Stylized, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 305 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $74k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WakuWaku Park $24.99 100 72% 3.0k $75k (exactly $74,970) DOUJIN3ARIES
KILLRUN older $4.99 153 67% 4.6k $23k (exactly $22,904) BULKHEAD
Packing House · EA older $9.99 73 68% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) SmartLife, Roman Studio
Puppet Team $4.99 112 64% 3.4k $17k (exactly $16,766) Editmode
Bober Constructions $9.99 30 70% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) Simplicity Games
Drunken way to Home older $3.99 53 84% 1.6k $6.3k (exactly $6,344) Yamauchi_games
Alice | 愛莉澄 older $4.99 36 72% 1.1k $5.4k (exactly $5,389) 838s Maniacs
Tybot Invasion: The Typing Runner older $4.99 27 100% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Sensen Games
The last Baron's stunt (Anime) older $3.99 28 60% 840 $3.4k (exactly $3,352) SharF Co.
Florida Interstate '86 $4.99 22 90% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Welcome to the '80s
Condemned to Clean $5.99 13 76% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) KOMA
RealityIQ | الواقع $4.99 9 100% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) kajol
JoshGeoff Weiner Simulator · EA $4.99 6 66% 180 $898 (exactly $898) AdumaGames
JumpMap $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Radiant Bear Games
The Last Detour $2.99 4 100% 120 $359 (exactly $359) Sólymos Dávid
INSPECTOR H.G.W. $0.99 8 100% 240 $238 (exactly $238) NumbtMK

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.