Do I ship it?

Games › MOBA › MOBA + Open World

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Open World MOBA?

MOBA + Open World

Only 3 developers shipped a paid Open World MOBA in the last 2 years. Over 4 years, 7 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 8 more are announced, ×8.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 9 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $0 against a market of $1.3k. 8 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 8 announced, ×8.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MOBA + Open World
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for MOBA + Open World: Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,509)
Top 5% $26M (exactly $25,530,428)
Developers, 4 yr 7
Released games 27
Announced 8
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 48%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MOBA
effort 9 / 10 · low · competitive netcode plus a balanced hero roster
Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MOBA, Open World
Price point
$5.00 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 4 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 45,269 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 4 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $750, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $25M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×8.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MOBA with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelitePoor odds10 devs · median $3.9k · 15 announced
  2. + AdventurePoor odds12 devs · median $3.1k · 44 announced
  3. + Tower DefensePoor odds7 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FantasyPoor odds18 devs · median $2.7k · 85 announced
  5. + Character CustomizationPoor odds10 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  6. + Online Co-OpPoor odds19 devs · median $600 · 57 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds21 devs · median $479 · 53 announced
  8. + ActionPoor odds53 devs · median $359 · 170 announced
  9. + SimulationPoor odds12 devs · median $359 · 33 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds23 devs · median $180 · 73 announced
  11. + Hero ShooterDead5 devs · median $49k · 24 announced
  12. + SurvivalDead6 devs · median $31k · 22 announced

All 50 pairs on the MOBA page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER 2023 · $26M BLACK CLOVER: QUARTET KNIGHTS 2018 · $1.2M AXYOS 2018 · $244k Egress 2019 · $48k 九州风流 2022 · EA · $21k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER older $19.99 42,572 84% 1.3M $26M (exactly $25,530,428) Soleil Ltd.
BLACK CLOVER: QUARTET KNIGHTS older $49.99 832 75% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,247,750) ILINX, Inc.
AXYOS older $4.99 1,629 52% 49k $244k (exactly $243,861) Axyos Games
Egress older $14.99 107 58% 3.2k $48k (exactly $48,118) Fazan
九州风流 · EA older $17.99 38 60% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) GB
Story of White Stone State older $5.99 47 23% 1.4k $8.4k (exactly $8,446) DRILL Games
蓝实战队 · EA older $6.99 8 25% 240 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) 清风
Raiding.Zone · EA older $1.99 26 76% 780 $1.6k (exactly $1,552) Lukas Meisegeier
萌盟大冒险 Cute Adventure 可爱 射击 生存 shooter Survival 可愛いです 射撃です 生き残ります 冒険です Sopravvivere Süß. Feuer frei. Zu großes risiko? Überleben мил стреля Выживать приключен mignon Des coups de feu La prise de risque Survivre 귀 여운 사격 모험 생존하다 Giro. disparar aventura Sobrevivir 可愛 射擊 生存 冒險 adorabile spari avventura sopravvivere older $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) xiaofeng
Midway accident older $4.99 5 40% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Tactical penguin
Bepe War $5.00 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) BepeDev
十秒英雄1-Ten Seconds Hero1 · EA $24.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 地星(D·☆)
Archetypal Destroyer $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) WAWRO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.