Do I ship it?

GamesMOBAMOBA + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite MOBA?

MOBA + Roguelite

Only 10 developers shipped a Roguelite MOBA in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Shape of Dreams, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×2.9 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $11M, ×8777 the market median. Revenue is up 390% on the market; 15 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 390% on the market, 15 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MOBA + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $2.9k → $137k → $7.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for MOBA + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,897)
Top 25% $137k (exactly $137,405)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $11,822,019)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 34
Announced 15
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 390% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 29%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MOBA
effort 9 / 10 · low · competitive netcode plus a balanced hero roster
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MOBA, Roguelite
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 18,156 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $11M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MOBA with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AdventurePoor odds12 devs · median $3.1k · 44 announced
  2. + Tower DefensePoor odds7 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  3. + FantasyPoor odds18 devs · median $2.7k · 85 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds10 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds19 devs · median $600 · 57 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds21 devs · median $479 · 53 announced
  7. + ActionPoor odds53 devs · median $359 · 170 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds12 devs · median $359 · 33 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds23 devs · median $180 · 73 announced
  10. + Hero ShooterDead5 devs · median $49k · 24 announced
  11. + SurvivalDead6 devs · median $31k · 22 announced
  12. + Battle RoyaleDead4 devs · median $16k · 30 announced

All 50 pairs on the MOBA page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shape of Dreams $24.99 15,769 89% 473k $12M (exactly $11,822,019) Lizard Smoothie
EverSiege: Untold Ages $19.99 1,906 68% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,143,028) Tindalos Interactive
WAR RATS: The Rat em Up $11.99 382 95% 11k $137k (exactly $137,405) wootusart Industries
VOIDCRISIS older $29.99 122 54% 3.7k $110k (exactly $109,763) HEXADRIVE Inc.
VOLTED older $4.99 151 85% 4.5k $23k (exactly $22,605) Betterburg
九州风流 · EA older $17.99 38 60% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) GB
Predictors older $9.99 31 80% 930 $9.3k (exactly $9,291) Challenging Games
Story of White Stone State older $5.99 47 23% 1.4k $8.4k (exactly $8,446) DRILL Games
NeverCOM · EA $4.99 49 95% 1.5k $7.3k (exactly $7,335) Shenzhen Huajian Network Technology Co.… (Shenzhen Huajian Network Technology Co., Ltd)
Enemy Inside · EA $12.99 10 100% 300 $3.9k (exactly $3,897) Six Ways Games
Luna & Sol: Nightmare Ward $7.99 13 76% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) PLAY Mephistowaltz
Battle Waves: Card Tactics $5.99 15 73% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) CAGE Studios
Fireworks-Bomb-GoodFriends $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) MentalHospital
奇妙大富翁(Wonderful Richman) $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) 海棠果工作室
Bomber Festival $0.99 8 100% 240 $238 (exactly $238) kaze studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.