Do I ship it?

GamesMOBAMOBA + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation MOBA?

MOBA + Simulation

Only 12 developers shipped a paid Simulation MOBA in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BidKing, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 33 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.3 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 33 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper, while revenue is up 115% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 33 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MOBA + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $748 → $120 → $1.3M (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for MOBA + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $100k (exactly $99,697)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 84
Announced 33
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 45%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MOBA
effort 9 / 10 · low · competitive netcode plus a balanced hero roster
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MOBA, Simulation
Price point
$5.00 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 36% positive over 24,787 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $99k, 1 in 20 over $1.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MOBA with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelitePoor odds10 devs · median $3.9k · 15 announced
  2. + AdventurePoor odds12 devs · median $3.1k · 44 announced
  3. + Tower DefensePoor odds7 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FantasyPoor odds18 devs · median $2.7k · 85 announced
  5. + Character CustomizationPoor odds10 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  6. + Online Co-OpPoor odds19 devs · median $600 · 57 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds21 devs · median $479 · 53 announced
  8. + ActionPoor odds53 devs · median $359 · 170 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds23 devs · median $180 · 73 announced
  10. + Hero ShooterDead5 devs · median $49k · 24 announced
  11. + SurvivalDead6 devs · median $31k · 22 announced
  12. + Battle RoyaleDead4 devs · median $16k · 30 announced

All 50 pairs on the MOBA page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War III older $39.99 14,436 50% 433k $17M (exactly $17,318,869) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games
Teamfight Manager 2 · EA $19.99 2,251 60% 68k $1.3M (exactly $1,349,925) Team Samoyed
Esports Life Tycoon older $19.99 605 61% 18k $363k (exactly $362,818) UPLAY Online
Pennon and Battle $18.99 175 69% 5.3k $100k (exactly $99,697) PB Studio
The Chronicles of Dragon Wing - Reborn older $19.99 158 77% 4.7k $95k (exactly $94,753) Dragon Wing Studio
War of Wizards older $19.99 140 70% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) Arcane Miracle Entertainment
GoD Factory: Wingmen older $9.99 189 62% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,643) Nine Dots Studio
Sanguo's Ambition 4 :Three Kingdoms $9.99 101 68% 3.0k $30k (exactly $30,270) Youshen Interactive
Tsundere Idol older $9.99 84 64% 2.5k $25k (exactly $25,175) Norn
Battle Waves: Card Tactics $5.99 15 73% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) CAGE Studios
Fireworks-Bomb-GoodFriends $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) MentalHospital
奇妙大富翁(Wonderful Richman) $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) 海棠果工作室
Bepe War $5.00 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) BepeDev
Falcon 2023(猎鹰2023) $3.99 1 0% 30 $120 (exactly $120) 独立游戏Sun_Official
Huiyu Spy Draw $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Huiyu

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.