Should I ship a Magic MOBA?
MOBA + Magic
Only 8 developers shipped a paid Magic MOBA in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Shape of Dreams, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 50 more are announced, ×13 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 9 / 10 build.
Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $3.1k against a market of $1.3k. 50 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.1k (exactly $3,116) |
| Top 25% | $100k (exactly $99,697) |
| Top 5% | $12M (exactly $11,822,019) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 8 |
| Released games | 52 |
| Announced | 50 |
| Effort | 9 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 56%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 9 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- MOBA
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 19,024 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×13 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
MOBA with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RoguelitePoor odds
- + AdventurePoor odds
- + Tower DefensePoor odds
- + FantasyPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + ActionPoor odds
- + SimulationPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + Hero ShooterDead
- + SurvivalDead
Comparable games
Shape of Dreams 2025 · $12M 
BLACK CLOVER: QUARTET KNIGHTS 2018 · $1.2M 
MageQuit 2019 · $464k 
Demigod 2011 · $303k 
Pennon and Battle 2025 · $100k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Shape of Dreams | $24.99 | 15,769 89% | 473k | $12M (exactly $11,822,019) | Lizard Smoothie | |
| | BLACK CLOVER: QUARTET KNIGHTS | older | $49.99 | 832 75% | 25k | $1.2M (exactly $1,247,750) | ILINX, Inc. |
| | MageQuit | older | $14.99 | 1,032 94% | 31k | $464k (exactly $464,090) | Bowlcut Studios |
| | Demigod | older | $9.99 | 1,011 75% | 30k | $303k (exactly $302,997) | Gas Powered Games |
| | Pennon and Battle | $18.99 | 175 69% | 5.3k | $100k (exactly $99,697) | PB Studio | |
 | 惊险极速 | · EA older | $6.99 | 91 97% | 2.7k | $19k (exactly $19,083) | 个人 |
 | Bestiary of Sigillum | older | $7.99 | 68 91% | 2.0k | $16k (exactly $16,300) | Intaglyph |
 | Glassbreakers: Champions of Moss | $19.99 | 22 63% | 660 | $13k (exactly $13,193) | Polyarc | |
 | WizardPunk | older | $9.99 | 11 90% | 330 | $3.3k (exactly $3,297) | City Wizard Games |
 | Luna & Sol: Nightmare Ward | $7.99 | 13 76% | 390 | $3.1k (exactly $3,116) | PLAY Mephistowaltz | |
 | 女神試煉 Quest of Goddess | $4.99 | 18 94% | 540 | $2.7k (exactly $2,695) | DNAXCAT CO., LTD. | |
 | KOLOSS | · EA | $9.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $300 (exactly $300) | Breakpoint One, Simmation |
 | Masters of Magic | · EA | $6.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | YC Studio |
 | Realm of Balls | $2.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Shuihan Coding |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.