Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Military

Of 83 developers who shipped a Military Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 129 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×653 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 129 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 129 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 83
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.4k → $23k → $50k → $2.5k → $9.0k → $719 → $3.0k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 83
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,840)
Top 5% $410k (exactly $410,086)
Developers, 2 yr 83
Released games 286
Announced 129
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 37,766 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 129 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Jagged Alliance 3 older $44.99 10,882 89% 326k $15M (exactly $14,687,435) Haemimont Games
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
龙胤立志传 $19.99 7,153 77% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) TPP Studio
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Phantom Brigade older $29.99 4,412 81% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,476) Brace Yourself Games
Millennia older $39.99 2,976 67% 89k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) C Prompt Games
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Warside $24.99 547 68% 16k $410k (exactly $410,086) LAVABIRD
Every Day We Fight · EA $29.99 385 72% 12k $346k (exactly $346,384) Signal Space Lab
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Forgotten but Unbroken $19.99 249 76% 7.5k $149k (exactly $149,325) Centurion Developments
Shields of Loyalty $19.99 140 77% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) Mosaic Mask Studio
Global Protocol: New World Order · EA $19.99 85 71% 2.6k $51k (exactly $50,974) Dorlion Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.