Do I ship it?

Games › Spectacle fighter › Spectacle fighter + Metroidvania

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Metroidvania Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Metroidvania

Only 10 developers shipped a Metroidvania Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Kotama and Academy Citadel, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×1018 the market median. Revenue is up 1940% on the market; 23 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 1940% on the market, 23 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Metroidvania
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $93k → $1.1k → $3.1k
Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Metroidvania: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $37,485)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,524,437)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 37
Announced 23
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1940% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter, Metroidvania
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 81% positive over 3,165 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 23 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ASTLIBRA Revision 2022 · $23M Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition 2015 · $15M ICEY 2016 · $8.3M Castlevania: Lords of Shadow – Ultimate Edition 2013 · $7.2M Momodora: Reverie Under The Moonlight 2016 · $3.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition older $29.99 16,313 78% 489k $15M (exactly $14,676,806) Gunfire Games, Vigil Games, THQ Nordic
ICEY older $10.99 25,142 89% 754k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,317) FantaBlade Network
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow – Ultimate Edition older $29.99 7,998 80% 240k $7.2M (exactly $7,195,801) MercurySteam, Climax Studios
Momodora: Reverie Under The Moonlight older $9.99 10,502 93% 315k $3.1M (exactly $3,147,449) Bombservice
Kotama and Academy Citadel $19.99 2,542 80% 76k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,437) Atomstring Games
OVERLORD: ESCAPE FROM NAZARICK older $29.99 505 65% 15k $454k (exactly $454,348) ENGINES Inc.
Divinum $14.99 525 85% 16k $236k (exactly $236,092) Sigil Games
Alice Escaped! older $19.99 307 82% 9.2k $184k (exactly $184,108) illuCalab
Skinny & Franko: Fists of Violence older $18.99 164 85% 4.9k $93k (exactly $93,431) Blue Sunset Games, Console Labs S.A.
Anima Gate of Memories: I&II Remaster $24.99 50 90% 1.5k $37k (exactly $37,485) Anima Project
Virtue's Heaven $19.99 12 100% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) MOKKOGRAD
Hammer of Pain $10.99 10 80% 300 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) SleepingFrog
Horror Night with Tung Tung Tung Sahur $7.99 13 100% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) Source Byte, Nikodem Świder
Mukuro no Rasen $8.99 8 100% 240 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) Matrix Corporation
Duil $11.99 5 80% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) JL studio
Arya's Blade · EA $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) WorldMatrixGames
ARO dangerous campaign $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Alexander Sevastianov

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.