Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Medieval

Of 322 developers who shipped a Medieval Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 530 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $330; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×774 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 530 games are announced against 180 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 530 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 322
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $3.5k → $1.6k → $1.3k → $3.4k → $1.9k → $1.6k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 322
Bottom 30% $330 (exactly $330)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,086)
Top 5% $368k (exactly $367,616)
Developers, 2 yr 322
Released games 817
Announced 530
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.89

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$9.89 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.89.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 22,903 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $330, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $330. 8 in 10 of the 161 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 530 games are announced against 180 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
Stoneshard · EA older $24.99 34,149 74% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,601,505) Ink Stains Games
Volcano Princess older $10.99 45,019 97% 1.4M $15M (exactly $14,842,764) 养蛋人 Egg Hatcher
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY IX older $20.99 12,447 95% 373k $7.8M (exactly $7,837,876) Square Enix
Romancing SaGa 2: Revenge of the Seven $49.99 3,921 93% 118k $5.9M (exactly $5,880,324) Square Enix, xeen Inc.
King's Bounty II older $39.99 4,473 61% 134k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,258) Fulqrum Games
OCTOPATH TRAVELER 0 $49.99 2,873 78% 86k $4.3M (exactly $4,308,638) Square Enix, DOKIDOKI GROOVE WORKS
Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars $49.99 2,049 94% 61k $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) KONAMI
Frosthaven · EA $39.99 814 72% 24k $977k (exactly $976,556) Snapshot Games Inc.
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
再刷一把2:金色传说 $9.99 2,748 44% 82k $824k (exactly $823,576) 滑稽工作室
Dice Gambit $24.99 1,080 87% 32k $810k (exactly $809,676) Chromatic Ink
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.