Do I ship it?

GamesShop KeeperShop Keeper + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Shop Keeper?

Shop Keeper + Medieval

Of 52 developers who shipped a Medieval Shop Keeper in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 109 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $460k, ×986 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 109 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 109 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shop Keeper + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $377k → $22k → $5.4k → $6.6k (still earning) → $838 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shop Keeper + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $838 (exactly $838)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,389)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,982)
Top 5% $468k (exactly $468,138)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 62
Announced 109
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 380% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Shop Keeper; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Crafting, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cozy, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 6,883 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $460k.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 109 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shop Keeper with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds101 devs · median $13k · 122 announced
  2. + HorrorFair32 devs · median $5.1k · 55 announced
  3. + Psychological HorrorFair26 devs · median $5.1k · 44 announced
  4. + ModernFair27 devs · median $3.2k · 28 announced
  5. + StrategyFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  6. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.5k · 27 announced
  7. + IncrementalFair56 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  9. + NaturePoor odds32 devs · median $31k · 59 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds140 devs · median $16k · 209 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds44 devs · median $16k · 96 announced
  12. + Co-opPoor odds40 devs · median $13k · 96 announced

All 48 pairs on the Shop Keeper page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tavern Manager Simulator 🍻 older $14.99 4,018 91% 121k $1.8M (exactly $1,806,895) One More Time
Bladesong · EA $19.99 1,483 95% 44k $889k (exactly $889,355) SUN AND SERPENT creations
Goblin Vyke: The Thief Tycoon $14.99 1,397 70% 42k $628k (exactly $628,231) Art Thieves
Scriptorium: Master of Manuscripts $14.99 1,041 97% 31k $468k (exactly $468,138) Yaza Games
Potion Tycoon $19.99 629 71% 19k $377k (exactly $377,211) Snowhound Games
Shoppe Keep older $4.99 2,008 68% 60k $301k (exactly $300,598) Strange Fire
Medieval Crafter: Blacksmith $11.99 745 76% 22k $268k (exactly $267,976) Compact Core Games
Cozy Keep: Farm, Craft, Manage · EA $14.99 315 93% 9.5k $142k (exactly $141,656) Unbossed Games
A Merchant's Promise · EA $14.99 300 86% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) Game Draft Studio
Loot Tycoon · EA $6.99 544 71% 16k $114k (exactly $114,077) Parallel Portal
Dungeon Bodega Simulator $9.99 320 98% 9.6k $96k (exactly $95,904) Alien Fruit
MeowCraft $9.99 109 71% 3.3k $33k (exactly $32,667) Meow Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.