Games › Turn-Based Combat › Turn-Based Combat + Match 3
Should I ship a Match 3 Turn-Based Combat game?
Turn-Based Combat + Match 3
Only 18 developers shipped a Match 3 Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Kaamos: Puzzle Roguelike, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $21k, ×46 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 34 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $179 (exactly $179) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,197) |
| Top 25% | $6.3k (exactly $6,294) |
| Top 5% | $22k (exactly $21,878) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 18 |
| Released games | 53 |
| Announced | 34 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 160% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based Combat
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Match 3
- effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based Combat, Match 3; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, RPG, Adventure
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 292 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashStrong odds
- + RomeFair
- + CookingFair
- + UndergroundFair
- + IdlerFair
- + DiceFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + SolitaireFair
Comparable games
Hero Emblems II 2024 · $92k 
Marble Duel: Sphere-Matching Tactical Fantasy 2015 · $81k 
The Forgotten Land 2020 · $23k 
Kaamos: Puzzle Roguelike 2025 · $22k 
Cave Quest 2 2021 · $20k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hero Emblems II | older | $11.99 | 255 58% | 7.7k | $92k (exactly $91,724) | HeatPot Games |
| | Marble Duel: Sphere-Matching Tactical Fantasy | older | $14.99 | 181 59% | 5.4k | $81k (exactly $81,396) | HeroLabs |
| | The Forgotten Land | older | $8.99 | 87 72% | 2.6k | $23k (exactly $23,464) | rokaplay |
| | Kaamos: Puzzle Roguelike | $9.99 | 73 87% | 2.2k | $22k (exactly $21,878) | Pepperbox Studios | |
| | Cave Quest 2 | older | $12.99 | 52 92% | 1.6k | $20k (exactly $20,264) | MD Studio |
 | Roguematch : The Extraplanar Invasion | $14.99 | 33 84% | 990 | $15k (exactly $14,840) | Starstruck Games | |
 | Dungeons & Jewels | older | $4.99 | 99 89% | 3.0k | $15k (exactly $14,820) | JJJ |
 | Crown of Pain | older | $4.99 | 83 69% | 2.5k | $12k (exactly $12,425) | Jagit Games, Coldwild Games |
 | Beasties - Monster Trainer Puzzle RPG | older | $8.99 | 45 46% | 1.4k | $12k (exactly $12,136) | rokaplay |
 | Witch of Mystery Tower | older | $9.99 | 38 81% | 1.1k | $11k (exactly $11,389) | 30cm games |
 | ChronoBabes | $3.99 | 81 80% | 2.4k | $9.7k (exactly $9,696) | Vinci | |
 | Matchmaker: Dungeon Heart | $19.99 | 11 81% | 330 | $6.6k (exactly $6,597) | Ghost Moth | |
 | Torment Hexus | · EA | $9.99 | 21 100% | 630 | $6.3k (exactly $6,294) | TMA Games LLC |
 | Creepy Redneck Dinosaur Mansion 1 Re-Raptored | $4.99 | 31 87% | 930 | $4.6k (exactly $4,641) | Pedalboard Games | |
 | Dexterous: Time to Steal | $9.99 | 13 100% | 390 | $3.9k (exactly $3,896) | HalfZach | |
 | Pinball Hero | $3.99 | 17 76% | 510 | $2.0k (exactly $2,035) | COSO | |
 | 大荒消劫录 | $3.99 | 10 50% | 300 | $1.2k (exactly $1,197) | 辰酉游戏 | |
 | Idylls of the Lunar Maria | $8.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $539 (exactly $539) | Charlie Batten |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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