Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Martial Arts

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Martial Arts

Of 35 developers who shipped a Martial-Arts Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×21 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×3949 the market median. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 55 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 21.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 55 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $380k → $382k → $30k → $18k → $809 → $18k → $45k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $13k (exactly $13,495)
Top 25% $152k (exactly $151,662)
Top 5% $2.5M (exactly $2,479,922)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 96
Announced 55
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Multiple Endings, Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
9 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 20,503 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth older $69.99 16,339 90% 490k $34M (exactly $34,306,998) RGG Studio
Path Of Wuxia older $34.99 28,286 78% 849k $30M (exactly $29,691,814) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
觅长生 older $14.99 27,072 93% 812k $12M (exactly $12,174,278) Chalcedony Network
河洛群俠傳 (Ho Tu Lo Shu : The Books of Dragon) older $17.99 9,616 81% 288k $5.2M (exactly $5,189,755) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
龙胤立志传 $19.99 7,153 77% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) TPP Studio
江湖十一 older $17.99 5,385 42% 162k $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) 万象皆春
Fights in Tight Spaces older $24.99 3,545 90% 106k $2.7M (exactly $2,657,686) Ground Shatter
The World of Kungfu: Dragon and Eagle $17.99 4,595 67% 138k $2.5M (exactly $2,479,922) ChillyRoom
天外武林 (Traveler of Wuxia) older $24.99 3,151 85% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,305) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Beast Saga $20.99 2,714 80% 81k $1.7M (exactly $1,709,006) 嘉兴黑曜石(Jiaxing Obsidian)
Psychic Kung Fu Master $19.99 1,723 60% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,033,283) 金十四工作室
万象群侠传 $8.99 853 85% 26k $230k (exactly $230,054) 火天工作室
Ascend From Nine Mountains · EA $19.99 324 92% 9.7k $194k (exactly $194,303) Nine Ascension Studios
侠落:百花杀尽 $12.99 493 70% 15k $192k (exactly $192,122) 上海江湖逸客信息技术有限公司
轮回修仙传 $4.99 1,085 81% 33k $162k (exactly $162,424) Collider Studio
Tales of Justice Academy: Winds Arise $10.99 460 71% 14k $152k (exactly $151,662) 九芽川 Ninth Leaf
小小侠客模拟器 $2.99 1,103 86% 33k $99k (exactly $98,939) 小小游戏

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.