Do I ship it?

GamesTime ManipulationTime Manipulation + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Time Manipulation game?

Time Manipulation + Magic

Only 16 developers shipped a Magic Time Manipulation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak II, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 41 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper, while revenue is down 70% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 41 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Time Manipulation + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $45k → $899 → $2.9k → $4.7k → $299 → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Time Manipulation + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,203,999)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 60
Announced 41
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Time Manipulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Combat
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 2,694 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $300, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Time Manipulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DemonsFair14 devs · median $2.7k · 9 announced
  2. + CapitalismFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + ModernFair12 devs · median $987 · 9 announced
  4. + PsychologicalFair18 devs · median $897 · 17 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair10 devs · median $657 · 15 announced
  6. + RacingFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair22 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  8. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 24 announced
  9. + RobotsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 16 announced
  10. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced
  11. + DetectivePoor odds16 devs · median $6.5k · 32 announced
  12. + NoirPoor odds9 devs · median $6.5k · 15 announced

All 103 pairs on the Time Manipulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak II $59.99 669 83% 20k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,999) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
DevilConnection $16.66 1,951 98% 59k $975k (exactly $975,110) ChaoGames
Iron Danger older $19.99 544 73% 16k $326k (exactly $326,237) Action Squad Studios
Magic Research 2 older $5.99 610 92% 18k $110k (exactly $109,617) Maticolotto
Time Lock VR 2 older $12.99 170 88% 5.1k $66k (exactly $66,249) WR-VRG
Magic Research older $4.99 410 90% 12k $61k (exactly $61,377) Maticolotto
Tin Hearts older $19.99 75 85% 2.3k $45k (exactly $44,978) Rogue Sun
Time Master older $14.99 64 95% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) MorpheusZ
Magic Potion Explorer older $9.99 95 55% 2.9k $28k (exactly $28,472) ARTIFACTS
Natti · EA older $7.99 109 58% 3.3k $26k (exactly $26,127) 4DAYS LAB Co., Ltd.
Mysteries of Perception $8.99 24 87% 720 $6.5k (exactly $6,473) 50 Rats Games
HexWind $11.99 13 100% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Charm Games
Negative Time $4.99 16 100% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Round Owl
Stop the Blight $12.99 4 50% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) Bouncy Washer
Temporal Gunslinger $2.99 11 100% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Ledan's Gift
Wima Magicamia Cute Girls Magic Battle 3DTPS $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) NoHitCreations
The Long Way Round $2.99 3 33% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Runic Studios
Snow Defense $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) Saritasa VR Production

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.