Do I ship it?

Games › Tabletop › Tabletop + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Tabletop game?

Tabletop + Magic

Of 66 developers who shipped a Magic Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 115 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×430 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 115 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 115 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tabletop + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $1.4k → $2.6k → $4.7k → $1.6k → $898 → $839 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tabletop + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,940)
Top 5% $204k (exactly $204,232)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 219
Announced 115
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Tabletop; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 2,455 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $900, 1 in 4 over $4.9k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 115 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tabletop with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BuildingFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  2. + CRPGFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  3. + RTSFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  4. + MilitaryFair30 devs · median $1.4k · 20 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  6. + DragonsFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + MahjongFair26 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  8. + WargameFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  9. + SpaceFair29 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  10. + CapitalismFair35 devs · median $807 · 33 announced
  11. + HorrorFair50 devs · median $776 · 51 announced
  12. + Local Co-OpFair31 devs · median $748 · 33 announced

All 155 pairs on the Tabletop page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cultist Simulator 2018 · $6.3M Baldur's Gate II: Enhanced Edition 2013 · $5.7M Demeo 2021 · $2.0M Icewind Dale: Enhanced Edition 2014 · $1.9M Spirit Island 2020 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
Baldur's Gate II: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 9,478 92% 284k $5.7M (exactly $5,683,957) Beamdog
Demeo older $39.99 1,703 87% 51k $2.0M (exactly $2,043,089) Resolution Games
Icewind Dale: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 3,107 91% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,863,268) Beamdog
Spirit Island older $24.99 1,545 91% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,158,286) Handelabra Games Inc.
Clank! $22.99 542 92% 16k $374k (exactly $373,817) Dire Wolf
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting
Dobbel Dungeon $19.99 441 92% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) Gamepie
One Deck Dungeon older $9.99 783 81% 23k $235k (exactly $234,665) Handelabra Games Inc.
WitchHand older $11.99 616 90% 18k $222k (exactly $221,575) Jon Nielsen
Talisman: Digital 5th Edition $29.99 227 70% 6.8k $204k (exactly $204,232) Nomad Games
Worlds of Aria $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Ludogram
Draw Steel · EA $19.99 67 98% 2.0k $40k (exactly $40,180) Verisim, MCDM
Successor $24.99 43 60% 1.3k $32k (exactly $32,237) Playwood Project
Book of Fei $2.99 347 93% 10k $31k (exactly $31,126) TAO Studio
Slaves of Magic $24.99 37 78% 1.1k $28k (exactly $27,739) Amethyst Dreamers
Claymores of the Lost Kingdom $9.99 83 67% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,875) Ultaan Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.