Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Lovecraftian

Of 32 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 94 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×34 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.0M, ×6483 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 94 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 34.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 94 announced, ×6.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $14k → $37k → $33k → $20k → $123k → $6.3k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Median $16k (exactly $16,189)
Top 25% $136k (exactly $135,532)
Top 5% $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 85
Announced 94
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 31,641 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.3k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $3.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.3k. 6 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 94 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Iratus: Lord of the Dead older $29.99 7,206 84% 216k $6.5M (exactly $6,483,238) Unfrozen
WORLD OF HORROR older $19.99 8,991 89% 270k $5.4M (exactly $5,391,903) panstasz
Fear & Hunger 2: Termina older $11.99 14,232 97% 427k $5.1M (exactly $5,119,250) Miro Haverinen
Fear & Hunger older $7.99 20,881 94% 626k $5.0M (exactly $5,005,176) Miro Haverinen
Look Outside $9.99 13,586 98% 408k $4.1M (exactly $4,071,724) Francis Coulombe
BLACK SOULS $13.99 7,337 95% 220k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
Legend of Keepers: Career of a Dungeon Manager older $19.99 3,939 79% 118k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,218) Goblinz Studio
Curious Expedition 2 older $19.99 3,861 88% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) Maschinen-Mensch
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Decktamer $15.99 2,069 86% 62k $992k (exactly $992,499) Horizon Edge
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Starless Abyss $19.99 296 83% 8.9k $178k (exactly $177,511) Konafa Games
Nightmare Frontier $24.99 187 69% 5.6k $140k (exactly $140,194) Ice Code Games
Whispers of the Eyeless $19.99 226 74% 6.8k $136k (exactly $135,532) Venris, Evil Gingerbread Studio
Hunter's Moon: A Sovereign Syndicate Adventure $19.99 205 83% 6.2k $123k (exactly $122,938) Crimson Herring Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.