Do I ship it?

GamesSurvival HorrorSurvival Horror + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Survival Horror?

Survival Horror + Lovecraftian

Of 89 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Survival Horror in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 176 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×6.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $670k, ×1079 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 176 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 176 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival Horror + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 89
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.2k → $19k → $11k → $4.1k → $4.6k → $4.8k → $9.0k (still earning) → $5.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival Horror + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 89
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,194)
Top 25% $59k (exactly $59,370)
Top 5% $677k (exactly $677,323)
Developers, 2 yr 89
Released games 251
Announced 176
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival Horror
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival Horror; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 27,830 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $59k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 176 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival Horror with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair13 devs · median $31k · 14 announced
  2. + DrivingFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Tower DefenseFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 16 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + SnowFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  6. + SportsFair5 devs · median $959 · 3 announced
  7. + Outbreak SimFair22 devs · median $958 · 24 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterFair27 devs · median $449 · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds10 devs · median $64k · 42 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds17 devs · median $52k · 21 announced
  12. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced

All 159 pairs on the Survival Horror page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SOMA older $29.99 46,772 95% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,080,768) Frictional Games
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
Scorn older $49.99 14,546 77% 436k $22M (exactly $21,814,636) Ebb Software
SIGNALIS older $19.99 30,601 96% 918k $18M (exactly $18,351,420) rose-engine
Amnesia: The Dark Descent older $19.99 20,420 95% 613k $12M (exactly $12,245,874) Frictional Games
Demonologist older $19.99 18,886 85% 567k $11M (exactly $11,325,934) Clock Wizard Games
Layers of Fear (2016) older $19.99 13,172 89% 395k $7.9M (exactly $7,899,248) Bloober Team SA
Amnesia: Rebirth older $29.99 7,894 77% 237k $7.1M (exactly $7,102,232) Frictional Games
Call of Cthulhu® older $19.99 10,962 79% 329k $6.6M (exactly $6,573,911) Cyanide Studio
WORLD OF HORROR older $19.99 8,991 89% 270k $5.4M (exactly $5,391,903) panstasz
Look Outside $9.99 13,586 98% 408k $4.1M (exactly $4,071,724) Francis Coulombe
The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu $29.99 3,107 69% 93k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) ACE Team
Pathologic 3 $34.99 2,528 80% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) Ice-Pick Lodge
The Sinking City 2 $49.99 1,410 83% 42k $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) Frogwares
DIVE or DIE - Children of Rain $17.99 1,255 91% 38k $677k (exactly $677,323) Drop Rate Studio
Whisper Mountain Outbreak · EA $7.99 2,421 84% 73k $580k (exactly $580,314) Toge Productions
Static Dread: The Lighthouse $10.90 1,394 90% 42k $456k (exactly $455,838) solarsuit.games
UMIGARI | ウミガリ $12.99 1,029 82% 31k $401k (exactly $401,001) Chilla's Art
Stygian: Outer Gods · EA $24.99 516 80% 15k $387k (exactly $386,845) Misterial Games
The Coma 2B: Catacomb $14.99 584 75% 18k $263k (exactly $262,625) Dvora Studio Co., Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.