Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Logic game?

Logic + Dragons

Only 12 developers shipped a Dragon Logic game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mind Over Magic, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is up 180% on the market; 8 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 180% on the market, 8 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Logic + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 25% $5.0k (exactly $5,034)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 41
Announced 8
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 180% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Logic
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 4,444 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 8 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  7. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  8. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  9. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  10. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  11. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced
  12. + Visual NovelFair114 devs · median $1.6k · 135 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Word Game older $34.99 5,930 93% 178k $6.2M (exactly $6,224,721) Team9
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Kit's Quest older $14.99 45 93% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Lone Fox Games
Educational Games for Kids older $12.99 50 82% 1.5k $19k (exactly $19,485) Crazysoft Limited
Dragon Detective: A Friend from the Shadows $9.99 49 97% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,685) Sungazer Software LLC
Curse of Dragon Mountains: The Strix older $9.99 38 47% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) Cateia Games
DungeonSweeper $7.99 21 76% 630 $5.0k (exactly $5,034) Smoketree Studios
Dumpy and Bumpy older $4.99 31 96% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Programancer
SEARCH ALL - RUNES older $2.99 42 92% 1.3k $3.8k (exactly $3,767) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
Spire Blast $6.99 17 100% 510 $3.6k (exactly $3,565) Orbital Knight
One more gem $15.99 7 100% 210 $3.4k (exactly $3,358) Cosmin Munteanu
New Yankee: Pirate Trap $6.99 11 81% 330 $2.3k (exactly $2,307) Alawar Casual
Master of the Maze $14.99 5 100% 150 $2.2k (exactly $2,248) Endeavorous Games and Tech
New Yankee: Jelly Chaos $6.99 10 100% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) Alawar Casual
New Yankee: The Way of the Knight $6.99 7 85% 210 $1.5k (exactly $1,468) Alawar Casual
Elven Rivers 3: Sky Realm Collector's Edition $14.99 3 100% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) 8floor ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.