Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Logic game?

Logic + Lovecraftian

Only 18 developers shipped a Lovecraftian Logic game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The House of Tesla: Definitive Edition, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×6.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $810. Revenue is up 2375% on the market; 19 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 2375% on the market, 19 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $19k → $1.2k → $46k → $17k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $809 (exactly $809)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,873)
Top 5% $627k (exactly $626,749)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 35
Announced 19
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2375% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Logic; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 1,959 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  2. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  3. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  4. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  5. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  6. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  7. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  8. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  9. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  10. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  11. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced
  12. + Visual NovelFair114 devs · median $1.6k · 135 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The House of Tesla: Definitive Edition $24.99 836 72% 25k $627k (exactly $626,749) Blue Brain Games
Call of the Elder Gods $24.99 313 89% 9.4k $235k (exactly $234,656) Out of the Blue Games
I'm on Observation Duty 6 older $11.99 652 94% 20k $235k (exactly $234,524) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
I'm on Observation Duty 5 older $9.99 775 96% 23k $232k (exactly $232,268) Notovia
I'm on Observation Duty 7 $11.99 426 93% 13k $153k (exactly $153,232) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
I'm on Observation Duty 4 older $4.99 787 96% 24k $118k (exactly $117,814) Notovia
Family curse older $6.99 222 90% 6.7k $47k (exactly $46,553) Stork Game
Ire: A Prologue $19.99 77 61% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) ProbablyMonsters
The Devilry Reservation older $9.99 65 90% 2.0k $19k (exactly $19,480) GentFish
ShoreTiles $6.99 90 74% 2.7k $19k (exactly $18,873) Voxel Studios
SECTOR ZERO $3.99 138 93% 4.1k $17k (exactly $16,519) Ondrej Angelovic
Silent Anomalies $7.99 39 94% 1.2k $9.3k (exactly $9,348) Pryeyes
Another Door: Escape Room $19.99 8 87% 240 $4.8k (exactly $4,798) SKONEC Entertainment, YOUCANSTAR
Grave New World $4.99 22 90% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) grishkogameplay, Dwang
MY FATHER LIED $8.99 10 70% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) LUNAR GAMES LTD

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.