Do I ship it?

GamesLocal MultiplayerLocal Multiplayer + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Local Multiplayer game?

Local Multiplayer + War

Of 42 developers who shipped a War Local Multiplayer game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×210 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 44 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 44 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Local Multiplayer + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.9k → $3.1k → $13k → $1.1k → $6.6k → $898 → $4.5k (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Local Multiplayer + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $838 (exactly $838)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,196)
Top 5% $132k (exactly $131,568)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 162
Announced 44
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Local Multiplayer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry PvP, Strategy, Combat
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.95 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.95 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 5,490 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $840, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Local Multiplayer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HockeyStrong odds11 devs · median $3.0k · 12 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair61 devs · median $5.8k · 64 announced
  3. + Action RPGFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  4. + Hex GridFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  5. + ModernFair24 devs · median $3.6k · 16 announced
  6. + WargameFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  7. + TennisFair18 devs · median $2.3k · 10 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 8 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair26 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  10. + Football (American)Fair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  11. + SportsFair196 devs · median $1.6k · 208 announced
  12. + RunnerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced

All 174 pairs on the Local Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Worms W.M.D older $29.99 10,435 85% 313k $9.4M (exactly $9,388,370) Team17
Gears of War: Reloaded $39.99 3,950 61% 119k $4.7M (exactly $4,738,815) The Coalition
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XI with Power Up Kit older $39.99 3,754 92% 113k $4.5M (exactly $4,503,674) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
Sid Meier's Civilization® IV older $19.99 2,789 92% 84k $1.7M (exactly $1,672,563) Firaxis Games
Command & Conquer™ Generals Zero Hour older $6.96 6,131 91% 184k $1.3M (exactly $1,280,153) EA Pacific
Combat Mission Shock Force 2 older $59.99 624 80% 19k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,013) Battlefront
Sky Force Reloaded older $9.99 2,687 92% 81k $805k (exactly $805,294) Infinite Dreams
Combat Mission Black Sea older $59.99 422 81% 13k $759k (exactly $759,473) Battlefront
SAMURAI WARRIORS 4 DX older $49.99 475 85% 14k $712k (exactly $712,358) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Fire Warrior (Classic) $9.99 439 74% 13k $132k (exactly $131,568) Kuju Entertainment
Monopoly: Star Wars™ Heroes vs. Villains $29.99 94 39% 2.8k $85k (exactly $84,572) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
UNDER DEFEAT $19.99 81 95% 2.4k $49k (exactly $48,576) CITY CONNECTION, TAKE×0FF
Sword & Siege Crusades: Book I $39.95 19 100% 570 $23k (exactly $22,772) Wargame Design Studio
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate (Classic) $9.99 74 90% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) Random Games
Final Liberation: Warhammer Epic 40,000 (Classic) $5.99 88 87% 2.6k $16k (exactly $15,814) Holistic Design Inc
Horn of the Warlord $14.99 30 96% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) MagicKrol
Hand Simulator: Shooter · EA $2.99 134 46% 4.0k $12k (exactly $12,020) HFM Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.