Do I ship it?

GamesLocal MultiplayerLocal Multiplayer + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Multiplayer Turn-Based Combat game?

Local Multiplayer + Turn-Based Combat

Of 41 developers who shipped a Local Multiplayer Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240, ×0.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 71 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper, while revenue is down 60% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 71 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Local Multiplayer + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $1.3k → $6.6k → $1.8k → $538 → $779 → $120 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Local Multiplayer + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 5% $22k (exactly $22,178)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 152
Announced 71
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Local Multiplayer, Turn-Based Combat; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, PvP
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.95 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.95 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 404 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $22k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Local Multiplayer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HockeyStrong odds11 devs · median $3.0k · 12 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair61 devs · median $5.8k · 64 announced
  3. + Action RPGFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  4. + Hex GridFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  5. + ModernFair24 devs · median $3.6k · 16 announced
  6. + WargameFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  7. + TennisFair18 devs · median $2.3k · 10 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 8 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair26 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  10. + Football (American)Fair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  11. + SportsFair196 devs · median $1.6k · 208 announced
  12. + RunnerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced

All 174 pairs on the Local Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Songs of Conquest older $29.99 12,127 85% 364k $11M (exactly $10,910,662) Lavapotion
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Football, Tactics & Glory older $24.99 3,998 87% 120k $3.0M (exactly $2,997,301) Creoteam
Worms Clan Wars older $24.99 1,678 77% 50k $1.3M (exactly $1,257,997) Team17 Digital Ltd
Heroes of Might & Magic V older $9.99 3,983 88% 119k $1.2M (exactly $1,193,705) Nival
Combat Mission Shock Force 2 older $59.99 624 80% 19k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,013) Battlefront
Swords and Sandals Classic Collection older $9.99 2,905 92% 87k $871k (exactly $870,628) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Combat Mission Black Sea older $59.99 422 81% 13k $759k (exactly $759,473) Battlefront
Inkulinati older $24.99 724 87% 22k $543k (exactly $542,783) Yaza Games
Fort Triumph older $19.99 714 78% 21k $428k (exactly $428,186) CookieByte Entertainment
Yomi 2 $19.99 104 92% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) Sirlin Games
Sit-Back Attack · EA $8.99 110 78% 3.3k $30k (exactly $29,667) Stapleton
Sword & Siege Crusades: Book I $39.95 19 100% 570 $23k (exactly $22,772) Wargame Design Studio
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate (Classic) $9.99 74 90% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) Random Games
Horn of the Warlord $14.99 30 96% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) MagicKrol
American Revolutionary War $39.95 9 100% 270 $11k (exactly $10,786) Wargame Design Studio
Sword & Siege Age of Longbow: Volume I $39.95 7 100% 210 $8.4k (exactly $8,390) Wargame Design Studio
Arete $9.99 22 95% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Molotov Cockatiel Games, Vasilios Kalpa… (Molotov Cockatiel Games, Vasilios Kalpakoglou)
Sword & Siege Crusades: Book II $39.95 4 100% 120 $4.8k (exactly $4,794) Wargame Design Studio
Warhammer 40,000: Rites of War (Classic) $5.99 25 96% 750 $4.5k (exactly $4,492) DreamForge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.