Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + Local Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Multiplayer Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Local Multiplayer

Of 23 developers who shipped a Local Multiplayer Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $160; 1 in 20 cleared $8.8M, ×5928 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 39 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 39 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Local Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $33k → $119k → $359 → $2.7k → $115k → $2.3k → $158 (still earning) → $168 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Local Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $158 (exactly $158)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,215)
Top 5% $8.9M (exactly $8,879,720)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 93
Announced 39
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter, Local Multiplayer; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Fighting
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, 2.5D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 58,951 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $160, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $8.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $160. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
DYNASTY WARRIORS 8: Xtreme Legends Complete Edition older $49.99 11,886 83% 357k $18M (exactly $17,825,434) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
MARVEL Tōkon: Fighting Souls $59.99 4,934 48% 148k $8.9M (exactly $8,879,720) ARC SYSTEM WORKS CO., LTD
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles 2 $59.99 2,879 83% 86k $5.2M (exactly $5,181,336) CyberConnect2
UNDER NIGHT IN-BIRTH II Sys:Celes older $49.99 1,954 87% 59k $2.9M (exactly $2,930,414) FRENCH-BREAD, Arc System Works
DAVIGO: VR vs. PC · EA older $24.99 1,200 84% 36k $900k (exactly $899,640) Davigo Studio
SAMURAI WARRIORS 4 DX older $49.99 475 85% 14k $712k (exactly $712,358) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Mighty Goose older $19.99 943 86% 28k $566k (exactly $565,517) Blastmode, MP2 Games
Fight of Gods older $14.99 762 83% 23k $343k (exactly $342,671) Digital Crafter
Iron Saga VS $29.99 376 79% 11k $338k (exactly $338,287) Gameduchy
Two Strikes $14.99 256 89% 7.7k $115k (exactly $115,123) Retro Reactor
King's Blade $8.99 49 81% 1.5k $13k (exactly $13,215) Alexey Suslin
Hit It Back $12.99 16 93% 480 $6.2k (exactly $6,235) Sue The Real
Thumps & Blows $6.99 15 100% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) Widijou
女神試煉 Quest of Goddess $4.99 18 94% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) DNAXCAT CO., LTD.
Nice To Yeet You · EA $5.99 13 100% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) Empty Bottle

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.