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Should I ship a Local Multiplayer Perma Death game?
Local Multiplayer + Perma Death
Only 13 developers shipped a Local Multiplayer Perma Death game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Hangtime!, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $120, ×0.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper, while revenue is down 30% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $119 (exactly $119) |
|---|---|
| Median | $120 (exactly $120) |
| Top 25% | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) |
| Top 5% | $75k (exactly $74,925) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 48 |
| Announced | 19 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $3.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Local Multiplayer
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Local Multiplayer, Perma Death
- Price point
- $3.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 470 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Local Multiplayer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + HockeyStrong odds
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + Action RPGFair
- + Hex GridFair
- + ModernFair
- + WargameFair
- + TennisFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + SportsFair
- + RunnerFair
Comparable games
Spelunky 2013 · $6.6M 
Nuclear Throne 2015 · $5.4M 
Fury Unleashed 2020 · $1.2M 
Windowkill 2024 · $507k 
Legend of Dungeon 2013 · $366k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Spelunky | older | $14.99 | 14,676 92% | 440k | $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) | Mossmouth |
| | Nuclear Throne | older | $11.99 | 15,047 96% | 451k | $5.4M (exactly $5,412,406) | Vlambeer |
| | Fury Unleashed | older | $19.99 | 2,010 86% | 60k | $1.2M (exactly $1,205,397) | Awesome Games Studio |
| | Windowkill | older | $4.99 | 3,390 95% | 102k | $507k (exactly $507,483) | torcado |
| | Legend of Dungeon | older | $9.99 | 1,220 72% | 37k | $366k (exactly $365,634) | Robot Loves Kitty |
 | Shovel Knight Pocket Dungeon | older | $19.99 | 518 91% | 16k | $311k (exactly $310,645) | VINE, Yacht Club Games |
 | One Deck Dungeon | older | $9.99 | 783 81% | 23k | $235k (exactly $234,665) | Handelabra Games Inc. |
 | Wally and the FANTASTIC PREDATORS | older | $14.99 | 196 91% | 5.9k | $88k (exactly $88,141) | Oscar Gonzalez |
 | Hangtime! | $9.99 | 250 77% | 7.5k | $75k (exactly $74,925) | Leo Langlois | |
 | Freaky Awesome | older | $9.99 | 205 55% | 6.2k | $61k (exactly $61,438) | Mandragora |
 | Up to Par | $19.99 | 49 73% | 1.5k | $29k (exactly $29,385) | It's Anecdotal | |
 | Orange Roulette | $2.99 | 132 96% | 4.0k | $12k (exactly $11,840) | Mikey Houser | |
 | Brutal Ball Manager 2 | · EA | $9.99 | 18 100% | 540 | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) | Stout Kassel Games |
 | Go Ahead | $5.49 | 15 86% | 450 | $2.5k (exactly $2,470) | Broken Project | |
 | Questwood | $9.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $300 (exactly $300) | Lyrical Games | |
 | Fortune Crafter | $3.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $120 (exactly $120) | VIKTOR LUBIANSKII | |
 | Hell Loop | $3.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $120 (exactly $120) | Tuncay Ayanoglu | |
 | MQ: Rise Above | $3.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $120 (exactly $120) | 99ADM | |
 | Manda Duo | $1.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $119 (exactly $119) | GreenBox |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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