Do I ship it?

Games › Local Multiplayer › Local Multiplayer + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Local Multiplayer game?

Local Multiplayer + Nature

Of 33 developers who shipped a Nature Local Multiplayer game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×291 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 47 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 47 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Local Multiplayer + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $1.1k → $3.4k → $239 → $4.8k → $1.3k → $1.3k (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Local Multiplayer + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,317)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,592)
Top 5% $138k (exactly $138,058)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 111
Announced 47
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Local Multiplayer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Local Co-Op, Co-op, Physics
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,931 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Local Multiplayer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HockeyStrong odds11 devs · median $3.0k · 12 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair61 devs · median $5.8k · 64 announced
  3. + Action RPGFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  4. + Hex GridFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  5. + ModernFair24 devs · median $3.6k · 16 announced
  6. + WargameFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  7. + TennisFair18 devs · median $2.3k · 10 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 8 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair26 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  10. + Football (American)Fair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  11. + SportsFair196 devs · median $1.6k · 208 announced
  12. + RunnerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced

All 174 pairs on the Local Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Wingspan 2020 · $5.9M Never Alone (Kisima Ingitchuna) 2014 · $2.6M Spirit Island 2020 · $1.2M Disc Golf Masters 2026 · EA · $320k The Smurfs - Mission Vileaf 2021 · $258k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wingspan older $19.99 9,807 94% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,881,258) Monster Couch
Never Alone (Kisima Ingitchuna) older $14.99 5,812 81% 174k $2.6M (exactly $2,613,656) Upper One Games, E-Line Media
Spirit Island older $24.99 1,545 91% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,158,286) Handelabra Games Inc.
Disc Golf Masters · EA $24.99 427 83% 13k $320k (exactly $320,122) Spinoff Games
The Smurfs - Mission Vileaf older $19.99 430 82% 13k $258k (exactly $257,871) OSome Studio
Quilts and Cats of Calico older $19.99 405 93% 12k $243k (exactly $242,878) Monster Couch
Bunhouse older $19.99 395 92% 12k $237k (exactly $236,881) Reky Studios
Sheepherds! $14.99 307 98% 9.2k $138k (exactly $138,058) Ultimo Disco
Log Riders $4.99 660 70% 20k $99k (exactly $98,802) Bluespy Studios
Cascadia $14.99 210 98% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Dire Wolf
Wirm $6.99 147 93% 4.4k $31k (exactly $30,826) Sbug Games
Nature Game System $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) North Star Digital Games
True Disc Golf $24.99 32 90% 960 $24k (exactly $23,990) Sportsmanlike Games
Marsupilami 2 - Salsa Palombia $24.99 28 100% 840 $21k (exactly $20,992) Ocellus Studio
Ailuri $14.99 28 57% 840 $13k (exactly $12,592) Vivink Studios
Vinebound: Tangled Together $4.99 43 95% 1.3k $6.4k (exactly $6,437) Riftpoint Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.